New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

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The_Impeacher wrote:
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Xavderion wrote:
The_Reporter really thinks this is a Black Death type scenario. That's wild to say the least. Just look at China's numbers, it's nowhere near that bad. Inb4 never trust China because reasons.


China's numbers are almost assuredly fudged. If you wanted to use this unfortunate event as a way to get a leg up on the competition, why not add 40,000 or so to the infected/recovered total to lull them into a false sense of security?




i dont believe china thinks in this way, in a competitive way to that extent. thats the way a country like america would think.

i could buy china fudging to save face internally in terms of how fallible they are seen by their own population, as a false measure of competence.
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Snorkle_uk wrote:
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The_Impeacher wrote:
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Xavderion wrote:
The_Reporter really thinks this is a Black Death type scenario. That's wild to say the least. Just look at China's numbers, it's nowhere near that bad. Inb4 never trust China because reasons.


China's numbers are almost assuredly fudged. If you wanted to use this unfortunate event as a way to get a leg up on the competition, why not add 40,000 or so to the infected/recovered total to lull them into a false sense of security?




i dont believe china thinks in this way, in a competitive way to that extent. thats the way a country like america would think.

i could buy china fudging to save face internally in terms of how fallible they are seen by their own population, as a false measure of competence.


Good point. There could have been a number of reasons for the false numbers, but they've certainly been altered. We know what they want us to know.
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Exile009 wrote:
You don't collapse the world economy just cos you need to put it on hold for a bit - that only happens if it was in a vulnerable position to begin with, if you've eroded your capacity for resilience and redundancy and got no savings to manage rough spots.



its so true, this is the big lesson that is screaming to be heard from all this, certainly here in the uk. and so far its falling on deaf ears im afraid to say.
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The_Impeacher wrote:
Going by the resolved case data, in the US it is 38% mortality.


Put your maths on the board...

You are either severely uninformed, use a base numerical system that humans don't use, or you are drawing conclusions from data that is not in evidence. (IOW: Either you don't know what you're talking about, are an extraterrestrial alien with a different number of countable digits, or have "secret data" nobody has made public. ;))

Above, somewhere, I posted what the "official" counts are from the reports that have been verified. The mortality rate seems fairly consistent, yet is amplified by a lack of medical intervention, affected population demographics, populations with pre-existing conditions, etc. It does not come anywhere near your reported guesswork. As stated above, one of the more drastically high mortality rates for those infected with the virus has been in Italy, with just a bit over 7%.

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In Italy, the mortality rate of resolved cases is nearly 50%. (You cannot include active cases in the calculation for obvious reasons)


O.o

So... If you're measuring the rate of "Dead People being Dead," you're only half wrong?

Where are your maths. Do them. If you try, you'll likely see that you've made an error in how you're interpreting certain fields.

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A couple of other notes (This part is speculation):


With unreliable data, you note it, glance at it, look for any logical mechanisms being illustrated, then just keep it in the back of your head "just in case." You don't base decisions on it, but you don't necessarily ignore it all. So, China and Iran? Dunno. The data could be truly accurate or... not.

The issue here is that we don't have any historical data to rely on concerning this particular virus. What we have is what we have and a lot of that comes out of China.

If they have lied... IF their reporting has been purposefully falsified then, once this is blown over, people should literally start talking about "Crimes Against Humanity." You just don't lie about this kind of thing. You... don't.

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Although their reported info is trustworthy, Germany is an outlier. They seem to survive the virus much better than other people. Can't figure out why.


It remains to be seen how individual countries and what they put into place tends to yield. In my opinion, the only thing that is going to matter is keeping the hospitals open and healthcare workers working with what they need to have. Nothing else matters no matter what numbers someone shows.

I hope this is a seasonally susceptible virus. If so, we'll be greatly helped in the Northern Hemisphere by "July." Maybe even sooner. (Thanks global warming?) If not, we won't. That will be very bad.

An anecdotal report from a Doctor in the trenches:

https://imgur.com/gallery/GWNBnzp

Anecdotal? False? Not confirmed, but it seems to be in-line with other reports. eg: https://fox8.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-like-the-flu-not-at-all-according-to-doctors-treating-covid-19-patients/

Basically - This is not the "Flu." It's shocking some physicians. It's also requiring some changes to standard "flu-like" treatments, too. If a physician doesn't know, because they're overworked and tired, that there are reports that steroids appear to make the condition worse... It's not their fault. This is A New Thing. And, even the above, which appears to be accurate, could be wrong. They're in situations where days, perhaps even hours, matter.

PS: Patients are already being reliably triaged in terms of survival likelihoods. "Those who won't benefit won't get." The normal "do everything possible for everyone" tactic is over.
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The_Impeacher wrote:
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Snorkle_uk wrote:
i dont believe china thinks in this way, in a competitive way to that extent. thats the way a country like america would think.

i could buy china fudging to save face internally in terms of how fallible they are seen by their own population, as a false measure of competence.


Good point. There could have been a number of reasons for the false numbers, but they've certainly been altered. We know what they want us to know.


Did you...did you just interpret his disagreement in a manner that suits yourself? "We know what they want us to know" - not you. You seem to only know what you want to know...
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Snorkle_uk wrote:
blah blah numbers and stuff


ya except we already confirmed that the testing is radically insufficient. so please stop trusting the numbers like they're canon. they're not testing properly. they can't test properly.

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Exile009 wrote:
Yes some of them will stay. And, depending on what each of those legislations are and what purpose they serve, *some of them* should. That's kinda what learning from experience is all about - you don't simply go back to "normal" i.e. the way things were.


thats what you say now. look, when something is put into law it basically never comes out. so you'd better really consider future consequences before implementing it, which is exactly what isn't happening now. at least not in canada. we're pushing through bills like the fucking post office.

again its already in our law that the government can supersede our civil liberties (basically all of them, including the right to life) based on anything they define as "reasonable".
this was placed in law by something that at the time seemed justified, but the lengths to which it could legally be used is actually endless. will it be used in that way? i dunno, but the point is it LEGALLY CAN.

so i don't know where you reside but this is the type of fallout i fully expect. predict even.
and this CV19 stuff is just the magicians slight of hand to make sure you're not looking. and in some extreme cases, even asking for it
Last edited by xMustard on Mar 27, 2020, 8:29:01 PM
@ Morkonan

Clicking on the individual countries brings up the resolved case death/recovered percentages. Except (strangely) for the US. The math is elementary school stuff.

UK is at a 85% resolved case death %, but they joined the pandemic later on. The PM will likely help the recovery % in a couple of weeks

Another observation:

I'd like to see a 'new recovery' column on that chart.
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Last edited by The_Impeacher on Mar 27, 2020, 8:44:24 PM
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xMustard wrote:
...ya except we already confirmed that the testing is radically insufficient. so please stop trusting the numbers like they're canon. they're not testing properly. they can't test properly...


Citations needed.

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...so i don't know where you reside but this is the type of fallout i fully expect. predict even.
and this CV19 stuff is just the magicians slight of hand to make sure you're not looking. and in some extreme cases, even asking for it


In the US, there are some suspicious bits of what could be opportunistic law creation... But, if it is, it's cloaked very, very, well so far. But, there's nothing in the US that could be interpreted as some kind of Martial Law clause or a masked power-grab.

I can't tell, here, but are you suggesting that Covid 19 is just a "sleight of hand" trick or that it's being opportunistically used as a way to push through what may be undesirable legislation?


Just a "financial" note: In the US we are or will be in a "Recession." That is going to happen. What really matters though is that the underlying framework of the financial system is kept secure so that we can rebound effectively.

That's going to mean keeping the banks healthy and likely means that the Government will have to help to secure loans to businesses and even corporations once some predictable stability hits the market.

The Spice Must Flow.

People won't like the way that tastes... But, it's absolutely necessary and can not be avoided. (IMO) It'd be best if everyone started talking about that now and preparing for that road. Any politician who barks out against that sort of thing is, IMO, pandering. It's got to be done in order for a rapid recovery that isn't dripping blood all the way.
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Morkonan wrote:
What really matters though is that the underlying framework of the financial system is kept secure so that we can rebound effectively.

That's going to mean keeping the banks healthy and likely means that the Government will have to help to secure loans to businesses and even corporations once some predictable stability hits the market.

The Spice Must Flow.


The underlying framework was already insecure. Household debt is high. Govt. debt is even higher (and now will be through the roof). And even most corporate debt is excessively overleveraged, and unlike govt. debt most of it is rated as junk. And all this was before the crisis. You're just asking for a creaky ship to be righted so people are comforted as it awaits another shock it won't be prepared for.

The economy will be effectively running on govt. spending, and even that's only feasible for the US thanks to its currencies' (current) international position. What kind of capitalism is that? But never mind ideology, it's not even sustainable. Especially as central bank printers send inflation soaring. You've got to have a reckoning at some point. The party can't be made to last forever.
Last edited by Exile009 on Mar 27, 2020, 9:22:05 PM
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xMustard wrote:
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Snorkle_uk wrote:
blah blah numbers and stuff


ya except we already confirmed that the testing is radically insufficient. so please stop trusting the numbers like they're canon. they're not testing properly. they can't test properly.



i quoted how many people were dying. i think ull find they are testing these people to make sure theyre actually dead before they stack the bodies up in tents waiting to be incinerated.

are you suggesting that such high numbers of people are dying that healthcare systems are going into meltdown, body storage systems are going into meltdown, cremation services are going into meltdown because of a rate of people dying that is completely unprepared for, that is way outside of what these services deal with at this time in a normal year, and theyre dying from what seems to be a virus that displays the exact symptoms of the current virus that is a global pandemic...

but theyre not testing all of them and theyre actually dying from something else? is that what ut trying to claim? have u got evidence of this? any explanation as to what these people are actually dying from?





theyre testing people, especially the people going into intensive care, you think theyre not testing the people who are in an ic bed getting around the clock treatment? the people who are close to death if they are not treated properly, who are having very expensive time and equipment used to keep them alive, u think theyre not testing these people in particular to know what exactly it is theyre trying to keep them alive from?


so you are dismissing the 'numbers' from every healthcare system around the world thats actually treating the people in question, dismissing the numbers from all the healthcare experts the governments of this world are putting their trust in to take care of the people of their countries, the leading experts on viral disease in the known universe, you dont trust the numbers these people are giving because numbers cant be trusted.

but you trust you are right with your hunch based on a guess youve made from a position of virtually no expertise on the subject?

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