New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

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Anonymous1749704 wrote:

What can they realistically do though? Intentionally spread the virus as far and wide as they can?

https://www.businessinsider.nl/coronavirus-supermarket-loses-35k-woman-coughs-on-food-prank-gerritys-2020-3/

And in my country ppl are coughing on police officers on purpose, atm there are at least 10 cases of ppl doing so.
Ofc there are also the toilet lickers(yes that's a thing)

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The_Impeacher wrote:

I've circled the important numbers in this chart.

Of the cases so far, 3930 have been resolved.

Of the cases resolved, @ 62% survived @ 38% perished.

Using that confirmed data, we can determine that somewhere around 35,354 of the remaining 93,038 unresolved will perish. Important to note that this is only the beginning. Steps taken today (if any) to flatten the curve will not begin to take effect for 2-3 weeks.

Uh... Where are your maths, here? You're saying it's a 30% Mortality rate, more or less. That's clearly not the case as is shown right now.

In an unrestricted environment with no medical care and exceptionally healthy conditions for a virus, I suppose it "could" happen. But, I'd not think a mortality rate of 30% or so would be what we would see. That's a death rate that's kind of... biblical.

The worst we've seen so far is Italy's rate of just over 7% mortality rate. That's with an overwhelmed healthcare system and a high percentage of very vulnerable population.

In some economically depressed countries where neither decent healthcare nor good communication/education or government intervention is involved, I could see some very high mortality rates. I wouldn't expect 30%, though. (I am not a medical professional/specialist nor have I involved myself with any modeling of the sort since like... forty years ago., back when we actually had to go to the Library in order to make use of it. ;))

Going by the resolved case data, in the US it is 38% mortality.

In Italy, the mortality rate of resolved cases is nearly 50%. (You cannot include active cases in the calculation for obvious reasons)

A couple of other notes (This part is speculation):

I believe China has over-reported the amount of cases/recoveries and Iran has under-reported their deaths.

Although their reported info is trustworthy, Germany is an outlier. They seem to survive the virus much better than other people. Can't figure out why.

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I'd like to believe that people who (pretend to) spread the virus around will do that regardless of their opinion on a possible cure. Seems unlikely to me that people who are dubious about a cure would join them en masse later on.


Police getting coughed on was pretty obvious from day one though.

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The_Impeacher wrote:

Another thing to notice about this list - the number of countries you barely ever hear about, which runs contrary to their position on the list. You don't hear about Switzerland, even though they're worse off than S. Korea (which you do hear about, albeit mostly for its success in fighting the virus). You barely hear about the Netherlands, Austria and Belgium, even though they have bigger numbers than Canada. You don't hear about Portugal even though it's right next to plentifully covered Spain.

The differences in level of coverage of this outbreak across the world, and in online discussions such as here, is really revealing of where our collective priorities are, and which countries dominate the media narrative.

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Morkonan wrote:

In some economically depressed countries where neither decent healthcare nor good communication/education or government intervention is involved, I could see some very high mortality rates.

A lot of those countries also tend to be quite young, so don't count on that. Working against them is their infrastructure, but working for them is their demographics. So it's not as straightforward a prediction as it sounds.

And yes, I'm aware that even young people can and do get badly ill with this. The death rate is still heavily skewed towards the elderly.

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Exile009 wrote:

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The_Impeacher wrote:

Another thing to notice about this list - the number of countries you barely ever hear about, which runs contrary to their position on the list. You don't hear about Switzerland, even though they're worse off than S. Korea (which you do hear about, albeit mostly for its success in fighting the virus). You barely hear about the Netherlands, Austria and Belgium, even though they have bigger numbers than Canada. You don't hear about Portugal even though it's right next to plentifully covered Spain.

The differences in level of coverage of this outbreak across the world, and in online discussions such as here, is really revealing of where our collective priorities are, and which countries dominate the media narrative.

I certainly watch it all, but being a person in North America, my interest has a bias.

About the countries in Northern Europe: It seems like they got started late, but are catching up quickly.

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The_Impeacher wrote:

Going by the resolved case data, in the US it is 38% mortality.

In Italy, the mortality rate of resolved cases is nearly 50%. (You cannot include active cases in the calculation for obvious reasons)

A couple of other notes (This part is speculation):

I believe China has over-reported the amount of cases/recoveries and Iran has under-reported their deaths.

Although their reported info is trustworthy, Germany is an outlier. They seem to survive the virus much better than other people. Can't figure out why.

This math is just simply not correct. mortality rate is way lower than this somewhere lower than 5% and that is by my generous overestimation. By your calculations we are in the middle of a mass extinction level event which let me assure you is not the case. You are comparing the deceased to the already recovered cases which is not correct, you should keep in mind that the virus has both a long incubation period and long recovery period. It does develop fast in old people and patient state degrades fast with preexisting conditions such as diabetes, heart or respiratory diseases.

The already recovered sum of patients is yet a small number because at the start of the epidemic there were a small number of infected people to recover. If you look at the overall data from Wuhan for example where the epidemic is subsiding you will get a more realistic picture of how deadly this is.

Also take into account that these numbers represent ONLY THE REPORTED CASES. In many cases the virus only manifests with mild simptoms or as research shows some not at all, they are simply carriers. The actual number of cases is larger than you will see at any time in the charts but these people simply will not get counted in due to the fact that their condition does not call for hospitalisation. Unfortunately for the rest of the population these people do walk the streets thinking they aren't a danger for everyone else.

For more reliable data check this although what you posted seems accurate at the time you posted it: https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6

But estimating death rate at 38% is just bad math at best and panic inducing at worst and you should not spread this information!

edit: some more info here: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51674743

funny enough, flu cases are drastically down so far this year compared to the last couple, and its declining. hmmm

and as this years flu season closes we'll start seeing the "coronavirus" disappear. of course people will attribute it to social distancing and entire countries locking their population away with medical martial law, but "correlation doesn't mean causation", amirite?

theres tons of info and articles saying that these places, under their panic, aren't even testing for coronavirus majority of the time...they are testing for the symptoms.
my guess is at least 30% of all those stated they have "it" is that they just have the flu and will recover

but i guess im just a DENIER!! hurry and lock me away for not believing exactly as you believe!! HURRY

@ Ael00 - Don't include ongoing cases or the general uninfected population. You can only use the numbers of resolved cases (deaths and recovered)

We DO KNOW that there are MANY more undiagnosed carriers out there which would certainly bring the mortality % down. Problem is, there just isn't enough testing. Especially in the US.

Mustard, self diagnosed people aren't included in the chart.

We've done quite a lot of testing in Canada and are currently at a 19% mortality rate among confirmed cases. With wider testing, that's probably closer to the actual number. The challenge will be minimizing the infected, which is what staying home and physical distancing is all about.

If the world stood apart for 3 weeks, this would be over. At least over enough to get a reset so proper tracing could be done until a vaccine is developed. But the deniers won't allow it.