New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

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The_Impeacher wrote:

Going by the resolved case data, in the US it is 38% mortality.

Put your maths on the board...

You are either severely uninformed, use a base numerical system that humans don't use, or you are drawing conclusions from data that is not in evidence. (IOW: Either you don't know what you're talking about, are an extraterrestrial alien with a different number of countable digits, or have "secret data" nobody has made public. ;))

Above, somewhere, I posted what the "official" counts are from the reports that have been verified. The mortality rate seems fairly consistent, yet is amplified by a lack of medical intervention, affected population demographics, populations with pre-existing conditions, etc. It does not come anywhere near your reported guesswork. As stated above, one of the more drastically high mortality rates for those infected with the virus has been in Italy, with just a bit over 7%.

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In Italy, the mortality rate of resolved cases is nearly 50%. (You cannot include active cases in the calculation for obvious reasons)

O.o

So... If you're measuring the rate of "Dead People being Dead," you're only half wrong?

Where are your maths. Do them. If you try, you'll likely see that you've made an error in how you're interpreting certain fields.

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A couple of other notes (This part is speculation):

With unreliable data, you note it, glance at it, look for any logical mechanisms being illustrated, then just keep it in the back of your head "just in case." You don't base decisions on it, but you don't necessarily ignore it all. So, China and Iran? Dunno. The data could be truly accurate or... not.

The issue here is that we don't have any historical data to rely on concerning this particular virus. What we have is what we have and a lot of that comes out of China.

If they have lied... IF their reporting has been purposefully falsified then, once this is blown over, people should literally start talking about "Crimes Against Humanity." You just don't lie about this kind of thing. You... don't.

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Although their reported info is trustworthy, Germany is an outlier. They seem to survive the virus much better than other people. Can't figure out why.

It remains to be seen how individual countries and what they put into place tends to yield. In my opinion, the only thing that is going to matter is keeping the hospitals open and healthcare workers working with what they need to have. Nothing else matters no matter what numbers someone shows.

I hope this is a seasonally susceptible virus. If so, we'll be greatly helped in the Northern Hemisphere by "July." Maybe even sooner. (Thanks global warming?) If not, we won't. That will be very bad.

An anecdotal report from a Doctor in the trenches:

https://imgur.com/gallery/GWNBnzp

Anecdotal? False? Not confirmed, but it seems to be in-line with other reports. eg: https://fox8.com/news/is-the-coronavirus-like-the-flu-not-at-all-according-to-doctors-treating-covid-19-patients/

Basically - This is not the "Flu." It's shocking some physicians. It's also requiring some changes to standard "flu-like" treatments, too. If a physician doesn't know, because they're overworked and tired, that there are reports that steroids appear to make the condition worse... It's not their fault. This is A New Thing. And, even the above, which appears to be accurate, could be wrong. They're in situations where days, perhaps even hours, matter.

PS: Patients are already being reliably triaged in terms of survival likelihoods. "Those who won't benefit won't get." The normal "do everything possible for everyone" tactic is over.

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The_Impeacher wrote:

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Snorkle_uk wrote:

i dont believe china thinks in this way, in a competitive way to that extent. thats the way a country like america would think.

i could buy china fudging to save face internally in terms of how fallible they are seen by their own population, as a false measure of competence.

Good point. There could have been a number of reasons for the false numbers, but they've certainly been altered. We know what they want us to know.

Did you...did you just interpret his disagreement in a manner that suits yourself? "We know what they want us to know" - not you. You seem to only know what you want to know...

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Snorkle_uk wrote:

blah blah numbers and stuff

ya except we already confirmed that the testing is radically insufficient. so please stop trusting the numbers like they're canon. they're not testing properly. they can't test properly.

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Exile009 wrote:

Yes some of them will stay. And, depending on what each of those legislations are and what purpose they serve, *some of them* should. That's kinda what learning from experience is all about - you don't simply go back to "normal" i.e. the way things were.

thats what you say now. look, when something is put into law it basically never comes out. so you'd better really consider future consequences before implementing it, which is exactly what isn't happening now. at least not in canada. we're pushing through bills like the fucking post office.

again its already in our law that the government can supersede our civil liberties (basically all of them, including the right to life) based on anything they define as "reasonable".
this was placed in law by something that at the time seemed justified, but the lengths to which it could legally be used is actually endless. will it be used in that way? i dunno, but the point is it LEGALLY CAN.

so i don't know where you reside but this is the type of fallout i fully expect. predict even.
and this CV19 stuff is just the magicians slight of hand to make sure you're not looking. and in some extreme cases, even asking for it

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xMustard wrote:

...ya except we already confirmed that the testing is radically insufficient. so please stop trusting the numbers like they're canon. they're not testing properly. they can't test properly...

Citations needed.

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...so i don't know where you reside but this is the type of fallout i fully expect. predict even.
and this CV19 stuff is just the magicians slight of hand to make sure you're not looking. and in some extreme cases, even asking for it

In the US, there are some suspicious bits of what could be opportunistic law creation... But, if it is, it's cloaked very, very, well so far. But, there's nothing in the US that could be interpreted as some kind of Martial Law clause or a masked power-grab.

I can't tell, here, but are you suggesting that Covid 19 is just a "sleight of hand" trick or that it's being opportunistically used as a way to push through what may be undesirable legislation?


Just a "financial" note: In the US we are or will be in a "Recession." That is going to happen. What really matters though is that the underlying framework of the financial system is kept secure so that we can rebound effectively.

That's going to mean keeping the banks healthy and likely means that the Government will have to help to secure loans to businesses and even corporations once some predictable stability hits the market.

The Spice Must Flow.

People won't like the way that tastes... But, it's absolutely necessary and can not be avoided. (IMO) It'd be best if everyone started talking about that now and preparing for that road. Any politician who barks out against that sort of thing is, IMO, pandering. It's got to be done in order for a rapid recovery that isn't dripping blood all the way.

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Morkonan wrote:

What really matters though is that the underlying framework of the financial system is kept secure so that we can rebound effectively.

That's going to mean keeping the banks healthy and likely means that the Government will have to help to secure loans to businesses and even corporations once some predictable stability hits the market.

The Spice Must Flow.

The underlying framework was already insecure. Household debt is high. Govt. debt is even higher (and now will be through the roof). And even most corporate debt is excessively overleveraged, and unlike govt. debt most of it is rated as junk. And all this was before the crisis. You're just asking for a creaky ship to be righted so people are comforted as it awaits another shock it won't be prepared for.

The economy will be effectively running on govt. spending, and even that's only feasible for the US thanks to its currencies' (current) international position. What kind of capitalism is that? But never mind ideology, it's not even sustainable. Especially as central bank printers send inflation soaring. You've got to have a reckoning at some point. The party can't be made to last forever.

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xMustard wrote:

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Snorkle_uk wrote:

blah blah numbers and stuff

ya except we already confirmed that the testing is radically insufficient. so please stop trusting the numbers like they're canon. they're not testing properly. they can't test properly.

i quoted how many people were dying. i think ull find they are testing these people to make sure theyre actually dead before they stack the bodies up in tents waiting to be incinerated.

are you suggesting that such high numbers of people are dying that healthcare systems are going into meltdown, body storage systems are going into meltdown, cremation services are going into meltdown because of a rate of people dying that is completely unprepared for, that is way outside of what these services deal with at this time in a normal year, and theyre dying from what seems to be a virus that displays the exact symptoms of the current virus that is a global pandemic...

but theyre not testing all of them and theyre actually dying from something else? is that what ut trying to claim? have u got evidence of this? any explanation as to what these people are actually dying from?





theyre testing people, especially the people going into intensive care, you think theyre not testing the people who are in an ic bed getting around the clock treatment? the people who are close to death if they are not treated properly, who are having very expensive time and equipment used to keep them alive, u think theyre not testing these people in particular to know what exactly it is theyre trying to keep them alive from?


so you are dismissing the 'numbers' from every healthcare system around the world thats actually treating the people in question, dismissing the numbers from all the healthcare experts the governments of this world are putting their trust in to take care of the people of their countries, the leading experts on viral disease in the known universe, you dont trust the numbers these people are giving because numbers cant be trusted.

but you trust you are right with your hunch based on a guess youve made from a position of virtually no expertise on the subject?

i don't have a hunch
but anyway, do you think everyone that is confirmed "infected" with viral coronas are all on their death beds, and that they all die?

lets take italy for example. there is about 1,000 hospitals in all of italy. how many confirmed cases of cv19? 86,000.
even if you assume that all those who are confirmed are going to a hospital bed, that is only 86 people per hospital.

except not all people are going to the hospital, or isolated in the hospital specifically, and of course it isn't all equally spread out - but you can get my point.

anyway.....
https://off-guardian.org/2020/03/24/12-experts-questioning-the-coronavirus-panic/?fbclid=IwAR0ezt7gWJUAQs5_KFAirQTQLSkcXTbd6pgGivp01q8LEGV3fvG_JfFJC54&__cf_chl_jschl_tk__=30ae79d1ac687e35013bac977097ed478fcafa49-1585362375-0-Ae1v7oj91vC8r-FqivFLnPppA8-mkfFojLkK0s93htrj-tAaCT65bX4QsHvmr76GIp4NczqQ9xiEJrdgha-euYi3Qgbh_D1Of1yARIZ3ZERGSJvH3Vhm-hXgSnVYAv8YjryEjpUMugiwC5TlRw0I2wYwOOt0is8gNct51YyZurDiO5bispU1huaZwH-DUrdH_DJGnCRHLi2cbom0sKXuIgK0xbOZx1xDMWdMdh8DcUs7rkcYBTPcNrrXTu6KBzfvU0iSKG9IBSgANILATJKpNcMonjtCKSGGOoCSCsWL8gzc17xkRvsdgkbYyBg1M6i7skom1TaFOsi4yjNSmKNBKRd8He3PIJsEjfciKspFOTrUN8Egn6ck1qHIUvfKR2xpbV4JDPQj-VZqAq8wHKX5NgIHjC3JH4koiX194xtf8Fq3vTuxAhpDmmmmobPlgwcckg

dismissing the numbers? well the validity of them is questionable at least, even just due to the panic. but even if they're 100% factual at this point why don't you trust the numbers of other certainties, like influenza statistics of past years etc.


edit:
you want some numbers? heres the numbers of my province
https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/edmonton/alberta-covid-19-coronavirus-deena-hinshaw-1.5512445

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A week ago, on March 20, the provincial total had 195 cases. The total has increased by 351 cases since then, adding:

31 new cases on Saturday;
33 on Sunday;
42 on Monday;
57 on Tuesday;
61 on Wednesday;
67 on Thursday, and'
56 on Friday, bringing the total to 542.

Up to 42 of Alberta's cases are thought to have been transmitted in the community, an increase of eight from Thursday, Hinshaw said.

Twenty-three people are being treated in hospital, 10 of them in ICU.

so lets see here. 5% of those "infected" are hospitalized. 42, so like 7% are THOUGHT to have been transmitted in the community. and because of that, SHUT ALBERTA DOWN BITCH
mhmm

mhmmm

the funny thing is, Alberta basically WAS shut down already for an entire week.
Alberta, even before this was "officially" announced, did shut down non essential stores, businesses etc. and all businesses that remained open have population limits governed by security and the same security to help enforce social distancing in checkout lines etc. its been this way for like 5-6 days now.
they've already police taped off all of the parks. they've locked the swings. they've closed down community walking paths etc.
all dine ins were already closed. most businesses stopped face to face interaction, where you have to call to order and pay by credit card and they'll deliver your package to your vehicle then you get out and pick it up off the fucking ground.
malls were nearly entirely closed, except things like dollarama (again security patrolled)

yet...here we are

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xMustard wrote:

dismissing the numbers? well the validity of them is questionable at least, even just due to the panic.

Who's panicking exactly? The public sure, but did you see screeching fear in the papers emanating from the experts who're advising we take this seriously? They seemed pretty calm to me, certainly more calm than you're acting right now.

And what is that site? It's literally a bunch of contrarians who managed to get themselves banned from a mainstream forum and now dedicate themselves to claiming everything bad about mainstream media. They managed to trawl the web to find a few medics supporting your position, and people like you grab it. This is the equivalent of that 97% climate scientists figure (don't even start on that - I'm using it here simply to illustrate my point) and you choose to fixate on the 3% who think differently because they happen to align with your own naive opinion. The point isn't whether 97% of medics think the current response is appropriate - in all likelihood the figure is much lower since these are early days still, but is still the mainstream opinion of the expert community on this - but that you're randomly hunting around for anything to help push your point. You're reasoning from a foregone conclusion, and that isn't rational no matter what your position is.

lol sure buddy
its hilarious how people are all like, where are your sources, you're not credible. you give some things about credible people and what they're saying about it and you still just dismiss it with all the bullshit you just spouted.

just believe what you want to believe, i honestly don't care. what i do care is when you try to pass laws that limit my liberties based on this. ya im going to fight against that. and not just for my rights, but everyone elses.
yes im specifically speaking about my country, but i predict we'll be used as an example for other countries to do the same

who are panicking? the public. why are they panicking?
yes i have seen fear in the papers emanating from the experts who're advising we take this seriously. lol i see it every day


again if you want to believe you'll get sick and die by standing within 6 feet of another human being, thats your problem.
but if you want to fine me between $1000-$50,000 and upwards of 1 year in prison for trying to take my daughter to a public park? yeah you've just made it my problem

you want to hear what some experts are saying? yes, SOME experts. only the ones that agree with your own position though and are completely unwilling to hear the others.
im always willing to hear a side of the story, but what the mainstream experts that get all the mainstream news air time are saying just isn't adding up.
how my government is reacting just isn't adding up
what is being forced upon this countries entire populace just isn't added up

if you want to blindly follow some projections and predictions because that dude went to school for 12 years and now makes $4 million a month - go for it. but credentials don't mean shit in the face of reality.


edit: fun fact. what i heard on my local radio station. they said that the government of canada has announced some fines. you can be fined a minimum of $1 million dollars if you spread the coronavirus by community means, even unknowingly!!
welcome to canada, where we fine contagiousness

^Thought so. First off, I didn't dismiss what they spouted, I dismissed what you did. They might very well be right, time will tell ("are completely unwilling to hear the others" - nope). It's your motives that're the problem here. They're presumably arguing because they have conscientious doubts about what is the best response to this outbreak. They're worried about the response destroying more than the disease, or the response not being the most effective choice, etc. On the other hand, you seem to have hunted them down, and previously found your own meanings in the statistics, merely to advance your own agenda. As I said in my concluding line, you're reasoning from a foregone conclusion. And that conclusion doesn't seem to even be about how best to response to an outbreak...

I mentioned this on the previous thread, but I rather doubt you'd be okay with these measures even if there was absolute incontrovertible proof that they were the right ones to make to limit the deaths arising from the current outbreak. Even if we somehow had access to an alternate universe where the business as usual approach was taken and we got to see exactly how that played out (and it plays out badly), you (or rather folks of your disposition in general) would still be against it. Even if the opposite counterfactual - the deaths caused by this reaction - are clearly shown to be less than the deaths caused by the virus being allowed to run amok, you'd still be against it. Why?

Cos it doesn't really seem like reducing mortality is the concept you're approaching this from. All the disputing of figures and models isn't really about a disagreement over the best way to handle this threat. Rather I get the sense that your motives are a lot more about...well, I'll just link the relevant page in the other thread here instead - https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/2782812/page/62