New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

^More bullshit calculations I see. Reality deniers indeed...

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It's all right here, denier: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/indonesia/

You realize that's a site run by completely random people, most likely giving completely random numbers, right? I could literally pull numbers out of my ass right now and it's it's got more merit than what that site says. Because I'm not getting paid to give numbers.

Nobody has a completely accurate information but at least these guys give their sources. If you want to be angry, be angry at the various local media sources which get quoted.

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Scroll to the bottom. Sources for the data are World Health Org. and others. Fox News isn't listed.

I see, seems a lot more legit now. For statistic sites I usually go straight to the about section and just write it off if it isn't professionally run.

WHO has last all credibility. They WERE the ones that said this thing could not be passed from human to human. Please tell that to the sick people now. I'm not sure if WHO is stupid or was just being led by the nose or what, but whatever the cause they cannot be believed.

And to those of you that believe everything the CCP says as it were holy gospel, we have this little item.

https://nypost.com/2020/03/28/shipments-of-urns-in-wuhan-raise-questions-about-chinas-coronavirus-reporting/

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@ Morkonan

Clicking on the individual countries brings up the resolved case death/recovered percentages. Except (strangely) for the US. The math is elementary school stuff.

Sorry I missed seeing this reply earlier.

However, the math is not "elementary school stuff" because it's not even wrong. :)

You've made a common mistake. I don't blame you for accepting what is read and then making an assumption as to what it indicates. However, your assumption is wrong.

"Always be sure you are measuring what you intend to measure." This is a statistical axiom. :)

The number you are referencing is for "resolved cases." It appears that there is a very high, ludicrously high, number of deaths reported for "resolved cases!"

That number is likely true.

But, it's not the mortality rate of Covid 19. It is exactly what it says it is. It is the number of deaths reported for confirmed, resolved, cases..

What does that mean? It means that these are the cases where an outcome "is known." That means that there was a case opened, reported on, and confirmed as closed.

That doesn't likely include many people who had no symptoms, presented at a hospital and were sent back home, never went to the hospital, etc.. What that means is that someone who's recording cases creates one and can track it from inception to resolution. Where are those numbers going to come from?

Most of those numbers are going to come from filling out Death Certificates.

Most of those numbers are going to come from records generated by a hospital for patients who have been admitted.

None of those numbers are going to come from people who contracted the illness, never reported it, never needed any official medical intervention, and then recovered.

:)

So, you can see that what they are measuring here is the number of "closed cases" where there's a confirmed bit of data that tells one the disposition of a case. Most of that data is likely being generated in hospitals and morgues...

It is not an overall mortality rate. What it says is that for cases that are tracked, a large percentage of cases that have tracking data are those where patients have died. That's because dead bodies tend to generate a lot of paperwork.

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Exile009 wrote:

...The Spice Must Flow.

The underlying framework was already insecure.[/quote]

I would agree that there is some over-valuing in the US market. I would disagree that the market is, in general, "insecure."

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Household debt is high. Govt. debt is even higher (and now will be through the roof). And even most corporate debt is excessively overleveraged, and unlike govt. debt most of it is rated as junk.

I "believe" the last part is false. (junk) Though, there will be some <ahem> "re-evaluation" to be done soon. Even so, I don't think most would qualify as "junk." There's a buttload of stuff that is yet to be done. Without "anything" being put in place and the economy having to work "as is" during this epidemic, then... Well, that can't happen and be accompanied by the expectation of a good outcome. That's why I don't think it will happen quite like that.

A "snapshot" taken right now wouldn't look good for the mid/long term. But, this isn't a vacuum. We're not a completely free and unregulated open market. (I have not looked at the numbers/reports for household debt, etc. I'd wait for the April Unemployment reports, brace for the market's kneejerk reaction, then see what the regulatory reaction is before making any assumptions based on that. As a note: You can count on a dip in the first week of April, IMO. :))

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And all this was before the crisis. You're just asking for a creaky ship to be righted so people are comforted as it awaits another shock it won't be prepared for.

It's not as precarious a market as you make it out to be IMO. There are some overvalued picks to be sure. But, it's not a 2008 situation. There aren't any bits of worthless paper being mistaken for Golden Calves here. 2008 was literally people reacting to "suddenly" discovering that all the extremely large bits of valuable paper they thought they had were literally of negative value. Nobody bothered to tell them it was worse than "junk" when they bought it.

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The economy will be effectively running on govt. spending, and even that's only feasible for the US thanks to its currencies' (current) international position. What kind of capitalism is that? But never mind ideology, it's not even sustainable. Especially as central bank printers send inflation soaring. You've got to have a reckoning at some point. The party can't be made to last forever.

I agree with some of this, but only with some degree of sentiment. But, for the most serious prognostications of doom, what mechanism is going to affect that outcome? I don't see it. I see a downturn, a recession, and some serious intervention in places by government regulation/stimulus/etc. That's what having regulatory involvement is for. I'm a fiscal conservative, but acknowledge that we can not allow an unregulated market. I may not like a lot of government manipulation, but I am not against it if it prevents a panic wiping out people's livelihood. I'm also not against it if it prevents unfair/illegal acts, either.

As above, wait to see how severe the reaction is in the first week of April. (April 3? Can't remember atm.) Expect a big dip/drop. Wait for the response and the reaction to that response. Watch what is moving where and how it's moving.

No matter what happens, though, we must have a stable platform in order to be able to pull ourselves out of this financially. That means we must provide stability for the motors that allow people to lift stuffs... Banks. Financials. Capital. Loans. Etc. People don't like hearing about "money stuffs" these days because anyone who has any must certainly be "evil." But, the neighbor that owns, manages, works at a local fast food restaurant is going to be relying on someone, somewhere, providing an influx of capital in order to help them meet their expenses until healthy, pre-virus, business returns. And, it will eventually, because there isn't anything fundamentally "broken."

PS: I would be strongly in favor of government guaranteed/supported/discounted, privately lent (banks), loans with minimum (as in very minimum) interest rates for medium and small businesses. And, that's me... being a fiscal conservative. I bow to necessity. :)

I saw something about an experimental treatment involving the plasma of the covid 19 positive to help the newly sick's immune system build antibodies. This is old school as fuck, but if it works, it works.