New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

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Johny_Snow wrote:

Oh thanks, I didn't know. The biggest point here is that drinking hot water doesn't hurt you so you might as well do it if you want to give yourself a placebo. Looking for news about vaccine does the same thing - giving yourself false hope when the vaccine will come next year anyway.

I'd argue the vaccine obsession is harmful. Browsing the news is fine, but likely the most worried folks take it considerably further. Constantly questioning and discussing medicine that they just self-taught themselves, they're placing an additional burden of pressure on the people who're involved in making it. As if there wasn't enough pressure in this situation as it is. And some are likely stretching the truth as they play Chinese Whispers with stuff they've heard, spreading rumors and expectations whether they meant to or not.

Besides, the vaccine is likely irrelevant. It wasn't a vaccine that put an end to SARS - the disease had faded by the time we had one. A vaccine didn't stop the infamous Spanish Flu either. This vaccine is like a year away. Indications are that this disease - with whatever death toll it's gonna leave us with - would have wound down its cycle by then too. Unless it manages to become endemic somewhere.

And much like the flu, it's likely that vaccinating against this version of it won't protect us against whatever new coronavirus decides to emerge in years hence either (just as the SARS vaccine won't protect us from this virus, despite that both are coronaviruses).

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Exile009 wrote:

Our current system is incredibly fragile, always dancing on the edge of a precipice just a zephyr away from disaster. Listen to any talk by the people who work in the global catastrophic risk assessment field and you'll hear the same. Our economy is highly vulnerable. Our electrical grid is highly vulnerable. And yesm our health system is highly vulnerable too (hospitals in normal times operate at close to max capacity, cos beds lying idle is lost money, which is WHY we've so limited immediate capacity for dealing with a major disease outbreak like this).

yeah, u hear this over here, people from the nhs getting interviewed in the news talking about the health service running at 95% capacity etc. Theres no give, u can say oh u got X amount of hospitals with X amount of beds... ok sure but when shit gets busy just with regular stuff that happens all the time theres bed shortages, waiting lists, people getting treated on stretchers in corridors etc because theres nowhere to put them. this is just western 1st world healthcare systems operating with normal expected fluctuations in demand that happen all the time.



this is basically how business systems work atm. i noticed it when i left college and got a job at a supermarket for 6 months just to tied me over and earn some beer money whatever, 20+ years ago at this point? went there expecting it to be a business, its professional, biggest chain in the uk, surely everything works properly right? fresh out of education, naive. no, nothing works properly, ever.

to increase profits they cut all slack out of the system, you run on the bare minimum it takes to get 100% of 'things done' in the workplace day to day. then you look again, how much profit do we lose when we go below 100%? if we go down to 80% of stuff gets done do we go down to 80% of the profits? no, we go down to like 95%... ok thats value. So now the place runs at the ability to only get 80% of stuff done that theyre trying to get done. So lets look at it again, say we cut out another 5-10%, and then promote a culture of people feeling put upon by their bosses to get the impossible done, what happens? they work in a really unhealthy way, coming close to mental breaking point at times, and they get just enough done by going way beyond their pay grade to keep us running at like 95% of the profits while its only costing us 70% of what it really costs to make this store run in what u would think is a normal fashion.

this culture is everywhere, its not only that there isnt slack in systems, theyre constantly running as dangerously below the line as its possible to run without literally falling apart.



this is how sick the situation is with business is in this regard. look at advertising, look how hard advertising pushes 'stuff'. We buy what we need, and then we buy what we want, but thats not enough. what we need + what we want isnt enough demand to employ everyone, not even remotely close. We have to have a giant industry trying to create artificial desire and addiction to 'things' using everything we know about manipulating human psychology. Thats how absurdly vast our manpower and resources is as a society, it outstrips our need to produce what we need and naturally realistically want by an epic margin.

and yet almost everything is run with below 0 slack, on the edge of falling apart. critical things to our survival are maintained at an inch above breaking point. things that we should really be dealing with as societies that play on any moral persons mind are left to charities to try and solve, usually via putting a brandaid on it which is the most they can hope to achieve.


its utter madness.



i dont think we should stray into why this is the case because that goes from discussing the way the world of business runs into the world of politics when u really get down to it and this is obviously not a forum where thats allowed. but regardless of why, this is how business is run in most cases and as you say, it leaves things very fragile. how many businesses are talking about being on the brink of complete collapse when you simply take 1 monthly cycle of money coming in away? even just reducing expected profit for a single month is catastrophic for them, and despite us having so much 'stuff' it outstrips what we need and realistically want by such a stupid amount our means of distributing peoples allocation to get this stuff is completely reliant on these businesses to keep society functioning. its a perverse situation we have got ourselves in.

approx cases March
23 25 28
33000 66000 132000
3day double 3day double

As of right now there are 2200 deaths in the USA
This number will grow some before the day ends.

This is what makes testing so important and we are lacking it big time.
That leads us to be unable to know just how deadly this is.

There is a hidden element to this. A team of experts were polled. I
have not found much else on this part. But they as a group have a range
that the hidden part could be.

On March 23 they as a group said this hidden part could be as low as
83k and as high as 1.8million. That is a massive range. 33000 is the known.

If we just do some math for the numbers we have now.
Assume we have 80% to get this and it keeps doubling every 3-4days.
80% is the possible herd immunity. 330,000,000 X .8 = 264,000,000

132,000 264,000 528,000 1million(approx) 2m 4m 8m 16m 32m 64m 128m 256m
256million is close enough to possible herd immunity and is 11 doublings away.
11 doublings every 3days 33days .... (4)44days .... (5)55days ... (6)66days
Known numbers.
132000 and 2200 deaths. 264,000,000/132,000 = 2000
2000 X 2200 = 4.4million deaths

If we assume the low end of the experts guess of 83000 we would start with
332,000 instead of 132,000 and 2200 deaths.

332,000 664,000 1,328,000 2,656,000 5,312,000 10m 20m 40m 80m 160m 320m
About 9.5doublings away
28-57days away
332,000 and 2200 deaths 264,000,000/332,000 = 795
795 X 2200 = 1.75million

If we go the very high end of 1.8mil hidden we would start with 7.2million
instead of 33000
7.2m 14.4m 28.8m 57.6m 115.2m 230.4m 460m
5.2 or so doublings only
15days 20days 25days 30days
264,000,000/7,200,000 = 36
36X2200 = 81k deaths

This is why testing is so vital. It allows us to know alot more about the
hidden side of it. And much more about just how deadly it is.
TESTING IS KEY. And we have failed this miserably in the USA.

81k deaths on the low end or 4.4million on the higher end. And if you try
to extropolate from Italy right now like 20million.

This range is why testing is so important. We are stuck. Hardstuck.
Hardstuck because on one side is big death numbers. And on the otherside
is economy. And fear runs both sides.

The article I used for this range was one I found on 538.com.
It was the only one I have found where experts try to model what isnt
possible without testing.

Testing would have already told us if we could go back to work or not.
Testing would allow us to bend the curve alot easier.
Knowing is more than half the battle in this.
But we know nothing still.

And if we dont flatten the curve the deaths will be higher due to many
who need ventilators or other medical assistance to survive wont get it.

The good news is that if the hidden side closer to the 1.8million estimate
we had on march 23 instead of the 33000 known we will see the deaths keep spiking
for another 15-21days and then should drop off hard as herd immunity is reached.
81k will be dead or so.

If it is closer to the 83k this drop off wont happen for 45ish days? Not sure.
Guesses are just that and why testing is so important. And 1.75million dead.

My guess of the USA doubling every 3days is based on the last 6days. We are very close to doubling every 3-3.5days.

We still don't know with 100% certainty that herd immunity happens with Covid-19. It could be that some will develop immunity and others won't.

Hopefully, it does.

Good info. Thank you.

A lot of numbers up there Hampster. Let me know when more die of it than flu each year and I'll start to worry.

So far 2000 vs 30,000+..tempest in a teapot.

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Aim_Deep wrote:

A lot of numbers up there Hampster. Let me know when more die of it than flu each year and I'll start to worry.

So far 2000 vs 30,000+..tempest in a teapot.

How many die of the flu each day in the US? Is it more than 515?

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Exile009 wrote:

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Johny_Snow wrote:

Oh thanks, I didn't know. The biggest point here is that drinking hot water doesn't hurt you so you might as well do it if you want to give yourself a placebo. Looking for news about vaccine does the same thing - giving yourself false hope when the vaccine will come next year anyway.

I'd argue the vaccine obsession is harmful. Browsing the news is fine, but likely the most worried folks take it considerably further. Constantly questioning and discussing medicine that they just self-taught themselves, they're placing an additional burden of pressure on the people who're involved in making it. As if there wasn't enough pressure in this situation as it is. And some are likely stretching the truth as they play Chinese Whispers with stuff they've heard, spreading rumors and expectations whether they meant to or not.

Besides, the vaccine is likely irrelevant. It wasn't a vaccine that put an end to SARS - the disease had faded by the time we had one. A vaccine didn't stop the infamous Spanish Flu either. This vaccine is like a year away. Indications are that this disease - with whatever death toll it's gonna leave us with - would have wound down its cycle by then too. Unless it manages to become endemic somewhere.

And much like the flu, it's likely that vaccinating against this version of it won't protect us against whatever new coronavirus decides to emerge in years hence either (just as the SARS vaccine won't protect us from this virus, despite that both are coronaviruses).

I agree we still have not found AIDS vaccine in 40 years.

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The_Impeacher wrote:

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Aim_Deep wrote:

A lot of numbers up there Hampster. Let me know when more die of it than flu each year and I'll start to worry.

So far 2000 vs 30,000+..tempest in a teapot.

How many die of the flu each day in the US? Is it more than 515?

Way more CDC estimates 12,000 to 61,000 in USA alone
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

going by the 2019 numbers, 219 deaths per day from influenza and complications from influenza.

US is at 515 so far today and that number will grow each day for many months until either everyone has gotten it or a vaccine is distributed.

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A lot of numbers up there Hampster. Let me know when more die of it than flu each year and I'll start to worry.

So far 2000 vs 30,000+..tempest in a teapot.

Basically without testing we wont know. This will be more deadly than the flu for sure. It could be not much more. Or it could be way more.

We should see this play out in the next 60-90days in full.

81k on the low end. (1.8million had it on March 23)
1.75million. (83k had it on march 23)
4.40million. (33k had it on march 23)
USA approx deaths

If Italy numbers are true .... 20million dead in the USA. (doubtful)

All of these numbers are going to be abit more due to the overwhelming of
medical facilities.

In a bad year the flu kills 61k. So this will be worse than the flu.
Question is we cant model much without testing. So we dont know how bad.

If it was 81k dead we would all go back to work tomorrow.
If it is over 1million dead in 3months well I am pretty sure we dont.

60-90days should be plenty of time to hit herd immunity (probably around the world also if it keeps spreading as it has up til now) And then we will see
via hindsight just how bad it is.

The USA has about 7,800 deaths a day on a normal day.
This virus is nearing 500 a day and climbing.