New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

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Hilbert wrote:

...What will be worse is the recession following the crisis. Many companies live from cashflow and that cashflow is reduced or almost stopped meaning they amass debt.
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I just wanted to join in the discussion, so picked this... ;)

The thing about looking for safe haven investments in a "collapse" is that there aren't any. You can't predict which investments are going to be "safe." If you could, then... it wouldn't be a "collapse." It'd be a market realigning due to <insert magic here>.

There will be some concerns that can weather certain types of storms. But, let's say there's a magic company out there that can. For how long can they hold out until they need to renew a payroll loan? It's not that uncommon to take on and then, one hopes, release an operating debt, right? Where's that money going to come from when the banks have none coming in? Who's going to factor contract loans? Moreover, who's going to pay?

Steam is happy right now. All the "online" concerns are really happy with all the renewed traffic. Sales are up, more people are looking at new games than every before!

Until they're not because they don't have a job.

The thing about money, being a readily transportable and very handy way to represent some sort of value exchange, is that in order for it to actually help create a stable economy... it has to "move." Moving money is the only way to actually make money reproduce so there can be more monies. :)

There will be no conventional market solution if there is a true "Collapse." I don't think a true collapse will happen. Why? Because today's environment is a very different one than in the early part of the Twentieth. BUT, it will most certainly require direct action to prevent further loss. That means "the heavy hand of government" will have to intervene, not just in the US, but everywhere else that a run on the markets threatens economic stability. What form that will take won't be a "check" or some interest-rate shenanigans. Those are conventional weapons in an unconventional time. If, that is, we do see what could be called a "collapse" looming on the horizon.

As it stands, we have a novel virus with an 80% infection rate, a 20% hospitalization rate, and anywhere from 1.5 to 4% mortality rate, depending upon local conditions and the availability of advanced healthcare services. In the US, unless sequestration and quarantine methods work outrageously well, we're talking about five million dead people.

Of course, that's only if it continues spreading unrestrained. Can we stop it?

No.

We can slow it's spread. We know how to do that.

But, we can't stop it unless we had a "cure" online, right now, and were distributing it in ginormous quantities with lots of needles and alcohol swabs.

So, what will stop it?

Summer in the Northern Hemisphere. That is the hope. That's basically the largest factor contributing to the eventual halting of the 1919 Flu epidemic and the hope is that the coronavirus is, indeed, a seasonal one and can not survive warm seasonal temperatures.

That's good for the Northern Hemisphere if so. Not so good for the Southern as they are soon to be moving into their "Winter."

The hope is that there will be enough time to develop a vaccine before it becomes a situation of chasing the virus around the globe as it rotates.

(All just my opinion. Best wishes for all. Stay safe.)

No Collapse? I know people that literally have no money. Like our single mom secretary we had to lay off and has $29 until end of month and no groceries. OFC I gave her some cash to ride it out until unemployment kicks. There are millions like her in California alone (1 million unemployment claims this week) and unemployment checks don't come immediately and stimulus checks wont come until June. I think within next three weeks most will begin to realize what a massive mistake shuttering whole economy was for a virus and the "cure" will be much worse than virus. Unless you're well healed like ones making this decision. Better have good security though.

There are like 50 million small business like ours who operate on razor thin margins and won't be able to just restart either. They take years to build and can't survive even 1-2 months with zero sales. I don't predict "collapse" I predict epidemic of suicides and other deaths of despair, murders and massive crime/anarchy and we'll long for only a 2% mortality rate of virus.

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LennyLen wrote:

We're on day one of the nationwide four week lockdown, and already people in most of my Facebook groups are acting angry and stressed out. I think half the population might kill each other by the end of week four.

Fuck Facebook and social media at the moment, it's just full of bullshit, scaremongering and negativity.

It's a great excuse at the moment to pick up the phone reconnect with friends I haven't seen for a long time or family I should probably contact more often rather than reading a bunch of mostly first world problems.

I'm on lockdown everyone is on lockdown here.

People lost their jobs, nobody can earn money. Daily people that earned money to get basic things are struggling.

Don't be ignorant and say such things.

Think again if you think you're having a bad time.. there's always someone worse than you specially right now.

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Xystre wrote:

I'm on lockdown everyone is on lockdown here.

People lost their jobs, nobody can earn money. Daily people that earned money to get basic things are struggling.

Don't be ignorant and say such things.

Think again if you think you're having a bad time.. there's always someone worse than you specially right now.

Well that's exactly the position that I'm in at the moment. Despite that I recognize there are plenty of people worse off than me and I'd rather focus on helping them (volunteered for some local organisations doing shopping and running errands for elderly people) than reading how someone had to queue for 30 minutes in the supermarket and they had run out of smashed avocado smoothies.

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Exile009 wrote:

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LennyLen wrote:

We're on day one of the nationwide four week lockdown, and already people in most of my Facebook groups are acting angry and stressed out. I think half the population might kill each other by the end of week four.

Makes you wonder - however will we handle that ever-prophecised time when a lot of the economy is automated and we finally get those 15-hour work weeks Keynes' promised us?...

were gonna have to switch production from drones to human beings. i think society can manage it, ggg are gonna have to order an awful lot more servers tho.


countries just need to step up and get their people through it financially. people have real money concerns and their governments are gonna have to help them out.

were gonna come out of this with 99% of our people still intact, unlike a war the deaths are not gonna be concentrated among young men in their prime. there isnt going to be cities turned to rubbed by bombs, were not gonna use up a ton of oil and metal metal. the problem is not going to be that our societies are stripped of the resources they need to function the way some other crisis would strip us. the problem is going to be on paper. we wrote a lot of little squiggles on paper, now in computer data, because we decided it would help us get the most our of our people and resources, a bunch of conceptual data we simply made up that would allow them to function to get real things done.

now were facing those little numbers we wrote down getting in the way. we will have the same people, resources, needs, demands, capabilities after that we had before, its just this construct on paper that will get in our way. the construct eventually boils down to who owes who what. its so vital to our real world logistics that it fixing it and changing it is monumental but were just gonna have to do what we need to do. we cant let the data hold real world back, its there to empower the world not to cripple it, if it ceases to do its job were gonna have to do the scary task of remaking it into something that works. we just cant lose sight of the fact its paper work, we wrote it down, we can tear it up and write down something new.

until then governments need to make sure people can eat and the people need to netflix and chill. if everyone just keeps perspective and does the right thing for society as a whole then were gonna be fine.

British epidemiologist who predicted over 2 million Americans — and 500k Brits — would die from coronavirus now says his model, which went viral, is wrong. Says England is unlikely to have more than 20k deaths & potentially much less. Whoops. Sorry for sending world economy into a depression and destroying millions jobs and small business' forever.

https://www.newscientist.com/article/2238578-uk-has-enough-intensive-care-units-for-coronavirus-expert-predicts/

In other news they claim only 3.3 million are unemployed. in USA But that only counts those who filed. I bet less than 20% have filed and many can't like contract workers. I bet 20-30 million are unemployed as of right now and you'll hear it next week when 50 million are.

The other big social media turn off for me is every single person who has had a cold/flu in the last 6 months claiming they had Coronavirus. Not sure how people can blame China for not acting on it in January this year when apparently nearly the entire population of the UK had it in November/December last year and nobody even batted an eyelid.

Good news, everyone! That expert who set expectations off mass die-offs due to Covid-19 has revised his estimations:

https://trendingpolitics.com/breaking-british-expert-who-predicted-millions-of-coronavirus-deaths-makes-stunning-reversal/?utm_source=economics

Aren't experts awesome? =^[.]^=