New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

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Johny_Snow wrote:

So is Germany vaccinated then? There must be a reason why the deaths there are so low.

They have a quite a high amount of the population living in rural areas, something like 50% - other harder hit countries in Europe have much lower percentage in rural areas - UK, France, Spain are about 20%, Italy 30%. Belgium next door with more deaths and around 1/10 of the population of Germany has a tiny rural population.

They are also much bigger on testing which is why deaths / number of infected there is so low, they have been testing anyone even with minor symptoms so then it's easier to keep people apart when they know for sure who has it.

I may of course be completely wrong, that's pure speculation on my part. It could also just be they are a week or two behind other countries and they'll see a surge soon.

We test alot.
Testing is free.
We didn´t test alot of healthy people yet. Antibody-test maybe in a week.
Our true infected numbers Can/Could/Probably are double/tribble/tentimes higher.
At any rate, this is probably a part of envoirment now, this is good because humanity immunises against this.
The deathrate of the economic holiday is yet unknown.
If you assume of 10Mill infected worldwide, the deathrate of the virus lowers itself.

Chinas rates are probably altered.
American recovery rates are probably underreported. Why risk going to doctor to report back?
South Korean numbers indicate a slow rate of reinfection.
Spain and Italy seem to run out of hosts.
Iran probably reached a reportability maximum.
Germanys deathrate is expected to rise a little bit, with importing.

I´m still under the impression that this could be already the 2nd/3rd/...-wave , if i remember back last year, there were some cases in my known-people-list with a pretty heavy flu. One which didn´t want to go to the doctor, the other who told me he broke a rib probably from coughing during sleep (asthmas). I can´t validate any of that.
I´m not sure one person can "droplet" that many people that fast. This sounds like a T-virus straight outa holywood. Different sources are not beeing investigated, probably willingly ignored.

Reasons, many ..., different healthcare, different hot weather, nocturnal bats, not alot of fastfood, no genetical altered foodsources, low radiation, no skyscrappers, rural industrialisation, Unity-government, no slums-policy, quick fanatical purgers, vaccination against alot of stuff excluding this particular, a focus on paperwork we count what we count. Pick which u like.

Germany started at the same time France did. If anyone is lagging behind, its the UK.

Also I believe Spain started a tad later than France but was hit much harder so there are definitely differences that don't depend on time frames.

Its inevitable. Switzerland caught fire because of Italy, Portugal because of Spain, you because of the US.

This is very interesting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2020/04/01/why-is-coronavirus-fear-so-low-in-sweden/#5dc716cc3870


It seems like Sweden is the measuring stick. Can a country, which doesn't seem to care at all about the virus actually prosper? Are they running into a disaster? This will be a very interesting experiment to be sure. The UK failed it, implemented the measures too slow and are suffering. Lets see the Swedes.

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Johny_Snow wrote:

Oh, its just began now in earnest in Russia, no worries. After week or two they'll be chasing Western Europe's numbers (depending on how much they are able to cover up of course).

outside of the big cities (mostly Moscow and Leningr.., er St Petersburg) a lot of Russian population is rural or suburban and lacks any social mobility whatsoever due to poverty. Which, in this case, can be a blessing.

However, from what I hear from some people I know there, is that there are very few measures about metro and train travel, which is perfect for this virus to spread.

In general tho, countries with strong authoritarian/communist regime that can enforce discipline and really make people follow rules of lockdown, are in better position than regular western value countries against covid-19.

US couldve prevented a lot of cases if they enforced lockdown early and relentlessly. I think most will agree that a temporary reduction in 'muh freedom to go outside and cough on anyone' would be worth lives saved.

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Johny_Snow wrote:

This is very interesting.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/traversmark/2020/04/01/why-is-coronavirus-fear-so-low-in-sweden/#5dc716cc3870


It seems like Sweden is the measuring stick. Can a country, which doesn't seem to care at all about the virus actually prosper? Are they running into a disaster? This will be a very interesting experiment to be sure. The UK failed it, implemented the measures too slow and are suffering. Lets see the Swedes.

No they are just smart. You dont crash a whole economy which will be 10x worse than 3% hit on your population succumbing to a virus. We are going to see unpaid HC workers, mass violence, mass suicides, and even starvation with no economy.

You know, I always wondered how is an economy, where hundreds of thousands die, going to fare. In the case of big countries like the US, India and Russia the numbers might be in the millions.

So answer me this, please. How normal will be the economy you envision when so many people are dying around you and you cant go to hospitals at all because they will be basically filled to the point where people will be tended outside on the street?

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Johny_Snow wrote:

You know, I always wondered how is an economy, where hundreds of thousands die, going to fare. In the case of big countries like the US, India and Russia the numbers might be in the millions.

So answer me this, please. How normal will be the economy you envision when so many people are dying around you and you cant go to hospitals at all because they will be basically filled to the point where people will be tended outside on the street?

It's happened many times in past but never has a nation put themselves in a self-imposed Great depression. This is a childish answer fit for an unserious age we are living in.

Sweden is still doing relative social disancing and quantines but not shutting down economy. “Just shut everyone inside their home.” is honestly something a child would come up with. I’m STUNNED it was ever considered.

Lets do some quick calculations.

1% death rate
but since there will not be space at hospitals plenty more people will die who otherwise would be saved
so lets bump it to 3%
3% out of 70% of the population, so lets say 3% out of 225 million
do the math

but this is not all, about 10% of these cases require hospital intervention
so you might as well put 10% out of the 225 million

of course there is a number of people who don't necessarily need hospitalization but still have high fever, so they are unlikely to be able to work either

you are looking at 20% of 225 million people not being able to work

this is without considering other factors, like the inability of the healthcare system to manage other cases, which have nothing to do with covid and the psychological effect when thousands of your compatriots are dying every day

Booming economy!