Corona virus

Told ya. The country is gonna burn. Most likely brighter than Italy considering the size difference.

Meanwhile seems like the EU countries are managing to stall it a bit. Of course we have to wait 1 more week to see if it sticks.

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Foreverhappychan wrote:

I read that the UK is managing to pay out of work bar staff 80% of their wages.

its not 80% just for out of work bar staff. theyre giving everyone who is employed in the uk who is now forced to not work because of the shutdown 80% of their wages up to £2500 per month.

what theyre going to do for people who are self employed is still unsure, afaik its not been announced yet. small businesses are all getting a £10,000 grant and medium businesses are getting a £25,000 grant. I think mortgage payments have been frozen, theres some other measures for renting etc.

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xMustard wrote:

now you're the one who needs to give me a SHRED of evidence that this coronavirus is going to be killing people in the streets, collapse our healthcare etc.
don't give me predictions or projections, give me EVIDENCE. yeah there is none.

the imperial college in london has run the best data we have through the best models we have and they estimate in the usa and uk if they were to continue to run a mitigation strategy, ie social distancing etc but not hard shutting everything down, the most optimistic reserved figures show that for every hospital bed the uk and usa currently have they would have 8 cases who needed that bed. so youd need to increase the capacity to deal with hospitalised people by a factor of 8, for every 100 beds we have were gonna need another 700.

in italy theyre piling bodies up in churches, theyre putting up tents to act as emergency morgues, people who need hospital treatment are not getting it because theres no capacity. no healthcare system in the world can cope with the effects of this virus if they do not implement pretty extreme suppression measures on their populations.


countries are moving from 5 deaths to 20 deaths to 200 deaths to 200 people dying per day to 400 dying per day to 800 dying per day in a matter of weeks, and these are countries that are implementing lockdowns, school and job closures etc. no one is just letting this virus run rampage through their country unchecked, everyones introducing social distancing along with a ton of far more draconian measures and this is still the pattern theyre suffering.

the question is if u want to start shutting down while u have 20 deaths and hope to limit immediate deaths to the 100s possibly while ur healtcare systems etc have time to prepare for the onslaught that will happen when you remove the lockdown or do you want to wait a couple of weeks till you deaths are 100s per day before you lock down which will for sure result in 1000s, maybe 10,000s who are going to die from the infections spread during those weeks.

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Among the deaths: a 34-year-old man in Rome with no existing health conditions (according to reports) who died after being hospitalized for 4 days in sub‐intensive care. He had developed a fever after returning from Barcelona, Spain

Shit like this happens when you got no staff, no room and no equipment. And it will keep happening if we let it go unchecked.

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Snorkle_uk wrote:

countries are moving from 5 deaths to 20 deaths to 200 deaths to 200 people dying per day to 400 dying per day to 800 dying per day in a matter of weeks, and these are countries that are implementing lockdowns, school and job closures etc. no one is just letting this virus run rampage through their country unchecked, everyones introducing social distancing along with a ton of far more draconian measures and this is still the pattern theyre suffering.

the question is if u want to start shutting down while u have 20 deaths and hope to limit immediate deaths to the 100s possibly while ur healtcare systems etc have time to prepare for the onslaught that will happen when you remove the lockdown or do you want to wait a couple of weeks till you deaths are 100s per day before you lock down which will for sure result in 1000s, maybe 10,000s who are going to die from the infections spread during those weeks.

The first paragraph is questionable, for example italy was simply unaware of this disease for roughly two weeks before it was picked up.

So to claim that they didn't let the virus run rampant is not accurate, even though it was unknowingly.

Similarly, the UK and the netherlands went with the herd immunity strategy and are now fast back-pedling on their strategy, which is going to be far to late given the exponential curve.
So they also let it run rampant, spain is in a similar situation and there are probably others who let it run rampant due to blissfull ignorance.

And i don't think you can blame them for that behavior, the virus was being watched in china as a sort of distant phenomenon and it went completely under the radar that it was moving globally via the infrastructures.

The second part is also flawed in some sense, because we aren't preparing health care systems for when the lockdown is removed, we are slowing down the pace of infection so they have time to take care of people and send them back home after recovery at a rate thats stable and doesn't create a bottleneck of resources.

You would quite literally need in some country's to have nine times the current capacity to carry the load of the scenario your saying, a removal of the lockdown and slowing down the pace of infection rates.

The problem is also that once the virus passes your country it's just going to try and re-enter in the comming months.
I expect the entire EU for example to shut down all of its borders(inside the EU and from outside entry as-well) and implement harsh checkpoints for the comming two years at least.

Maybe we will open up borders inside the EU once every country dealt with it independantly, but then i still expect outside of the EU to have solid regulations upon entry at least untill we found anti-virals and a vaccine.

Peace,

-Boem-

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The_Impeacher wrote:

Exactly, Snorkle_uk.

The trend is bad news.

its madness m8, forget your healthcare system being able to cope, countries are reporting they have their crematoriums running literally 24/7 and theyre still piling up bodies in makeshift tents where ever they can put one up. theyre generating corpses faster than they have the capability to incinerate them. the morgues got maxed out in virtually no time.

if u dont meet this thing head on with what seems like insane quarantine measures no part of your infrastructure can handle what will result, sick people, dead people, hungry people. if you do nothing all the science is saying youre gonna have 60%, 70%, 80% type infection rates rapidly, within months, and when society completely falls apart under that pressure youre talking about millions of deaths not only from the virus but just civilisation itself coming apart at the seams. thats why no country is just letting this do its thing, the only real question is if countries have locked down soon enough.

if we look at italy, unfortunately the evidence might be saying they just didnt lock down hard enough early enough? as soon as you release the lockdown this thing is just gonna kick off again, atm theyre saying the best strat is to lock down, use those months to max ur capacity to deal with as much as possible, then take off the lockdown for just long enough that you can deal with the spike then shut everything down again before you are over run. so the idea will be to keep doing this for 12-18 months in the hope that a vaccine is available in quantity by then.

you cant lock down for 18 months straight and you wont have a civilised nation left to vaccinate if you dont lock down at all. so its just this stagger, peak, stagger, peak system thats on the table atm from what ive been reading coming out of the uk scientists that are advising the uk and the usa governments.

So bassicaly, if your old and have pre-existing conditions your pretty much in the worst possible position.

Doesn't mean everybody else is safe, but your probability increases drastically.

I don't fully trust those data sets though, but i assume they will provide a ball-park estimate.

Peace,

-Boem-

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Boem wrote:

The second part is also flawed in some sense, because we aren't preparing health care systems for when the lockdown is removed

we are, we have nowhere near enough ventilators etc to deal with this thing and were urgently trying to build them, we dont have enough protection equipment for front line healthcare staff etc, again theyre retooling manufacturing to mass produce them but we are desperately short atm. when they take the lockdown off after 3 months theyre hoping that the capacity to deal with severe cases needing ventilators and full on sci fi hazmat gear will be far greater than it is right now. our government is in major talks with all manner of manufacturing industries to see who can retool their plants to make the things we need to multiply our capacity to deal with this by many factors asap.

it still wont be enough to just let rip, theyre gonna remove the lockdown and then try and time it right to slam it back on before the infection rate outpaces our capacity to handle it. but they do hope that when that lockdown comes off we will have multiplied our capacity for cases that need vents etc.

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Boem wrote:

The first paragraph is questionable, for example italy was simply unaware of this disease for roughly two weeks before it was picked up.

So to claim that they didn't let the virus run rampant is not accurate, even though it was unknowingly.

ya it ran rampant at first, but none of these countries are just running that as their long term strategy. italy isnt in that situation having not implemented 'evil social distancing' etc. theyre in full lockdown, simply not going into full lockdown soon enough due to a lack of preparation and understanding was enough to completely demolish their healthcare system.

i dont think we acted fast enough here in the uk for sure. one of the lead medical people was on tv earlier and she said were currently at about 12% capacity in terms of beds and weve gone into a sort of soft lockdown now, but i wouldnt be surprised if the amount of infected people out there who just havent started producing symptoms yet absolutely savages us before the suppression measures take effect. weve got what? kind of a 2 week delayed effect of this thing? if we look how rapidly italys death toll started to rise over a period of 2 weeks its not looking good.

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You would quite literally need in some country's to have nine times the current capacity to carry the load of the scenario your saying, a removal of the lockdown and slowing down the pace of infection rates.

the lockdown has to come off, the economy cant withstand an 18 month lockdown so it has to come off after a few months at which point it will spike again and if we dont then go back into lockdown it will get out of control. from what theyre saying its a case of how long can you suspend a lockdown before this thing annihilates your healthcare system? no one here is currently crediting the idea that we will ever be able to cope with it being allowed to spread unchecked now. its all going to depend on how much we can expand our capacity in terms of beds and vents by the points we take the lockdowns off when it comes to how long we can survive out of lockdown before we are forced back in. thats what were being told the current model is.

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Snorkle_uk wrote:

...

Im from BE, just look at our death toll and compare it with yours, then consider we have been in lockdown for roughly a week and a half currently.

going from your baseline of 275 deaths currently, that means there are around 32000+- infected people in the UK, if you breach 65000 by most calculations it can no longer be contained and you go into an italy situation.

And as far as i gather you guys have just started implementing some baseline mild rules.

Peace,

-Boem-

Sadly still no real shutdown in Germany. At least most people around here respect the rules, but it's still not enough (supermarkets are full of people, zero distancing). Also Merkel went into quarantine because her doctor has corona.