Corona virus

Pretty sure we're cancelling our St Louis wedding. The more I think about it, some of our international guests are older and/or have underlying health issues. One of my relatives is Australian military and chances are they'll be put on lock down in the next month or so. And, to be perfectly selfish, I'm not sure I want to risk getting sick over there and being caught in the US medical system, not with my rather unusual condition.

Man this sucks. But it's the responsible thing to do when you're vulnerable: you stay away from potential threats even if those threats don't realise they're threats. I don't blame people for going about their lives if they have to, for being disease vectors for a disease that won't really make them very sick. I'm not thrilled about people skipping their self-quarantine to go to concerts or events, but that's happening here too. Difference is I am established here, can avoid them much easier here.

Two and a bit weeks in a US city, in places like museums, libraries, the zoo, with a reduced immune system and a population that still sees a global epidemic as a political topic rather than a medical one...right now, that just sounds stupid.

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The_Scourge wrote:

Pretty sure we're cancelling our St Louis wedding. The more I think about it, some of our international guests are older and/or have underlying health issues. One of my relatives is Australian military and chances are they'll be put on lock down in the next month or so. And, to be perfectly selfish, I'm not sure I want to risk getting sick over there and being caught in the US medical system, not with my rather unusual condition.

Man this sucks. But it's the responsible thing to do when you're vulnerable: you stay away from potential threats even if those threats don't realise they're threats. I don't blame people for going about their lives if they have to, for being disease vectors for a disease that won't really make them very sick. I'm not thrilled about people skipping their self-quarantine to go to concerts or events, but that's happening here too. Difference is I am established here, can avoid them much easier here.

Two and a bit weeks in a US city, in places like museums, libraries, the zoo, with a reduced immune system and a population that still sees a global epidemic as a political topic rather than a medical one...right now, that just sounds stupid.

Good call, Better be safe. A life with your loved one is plenty of time to prepare for another wedding.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

Sooo...anyone still think this is media hype and political jockeying?

edit: found this gem from animated math channel 3Blue1Brown too, which takes the math and, well, animates it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

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The_Scourge wrote:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

Sooo...anyone still think this is media hype and political jockeying?

edit: found this gem from animated math channel 3Blue1Brown too, which takes the math and, well, animates it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

China probably think it is a nothing burger too when it is just 40 something cases until people start dying and cases escalated to a few hundred. Give it time, it has potential.

My company pooh-poohed the first outbreak in our city at a care facility.
Now there are 7 confirmed cases in that one location, with one death.
We have 2 employees out this week being tested.

@The_Scourge, good for you. Stay home, safest thing you can do at this point.

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The_Scourge wrote:

edit: found this gem from animated math channel 3Blue1Brown too, which takes the math and, well, animates it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

Thanks for letting me show into your cards, Charan. You clearly are NO match against my math skills.

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The_Scourge wrote:

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

Sooo...anyone still think this is media hype and political jockeying?

edit: found this gem from animated math channel 3Blue1Brown too, which takes the math and, well, animates it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kas0tIxDvrg

Yeah, me. But not for your strawman. I've never once felt the authorities were overreacting, but I did - and still do - think a lot of the people are. And a lot of the non-establishment media are feeding that. This is a medical emergency, and I'm quite happy to let the WHO and other similar expert authorities take charge, rather than giving any credence to people on social media or online fora. Everyone keeps saying the best response to this pandemic is to remain calm and take some sensible precautions. I'm simply doing that.

Also, I'm kinda sick of the quick turn to blame games and conspiracy wrt this topic. That's where the political jockeying element comes in. It's not helpful right now, and so I'll happily pour scorn on all the people doing it just cos they want even more stuff to get their (and everyone else's) cortisol levels up.

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Exile009 wrote:

Everyone keeps saying the best response to this pandemic is to remain calm and take some sensible precautions. I'm simply doing that.

Amen

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Reinhart wrote:

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Exile009 wrote:

Everyone keeps saying the best response to this pandemic is to remain calm and take some sensible precautions. I'm simply doing that.

Amen

The problem as it were, playing devils advocate here, is that is probably the same advice you would get, even in the most dire of circumstances, by those "in control"

Obviously things can spiral quickly and you have both economic and security concerns. I find it hard to believe in the United States, for example, you could even accomplish isolating entire cities or states.

The more panic there is, the less "control" you have of fleeing (which causes spread), hording of supplies, desperation violence, etc...

Trust in government officials, is probably at an all time low, and in truth, maybe rightly so. This contributes to conspiracy theories and overall distrust.

Point is, we will likely never get a full understanding of a given situation shared with us. If a meteor was barreling toward Earth at this very moment, we wouldnt hear anything either. If a nuclear missile was on it's way to New York right now, they wouldnt say a word.

Most of our systems and society are faith based, trusting things will work as we expect them, and when those are disrupted, people act in truly primitive forms. Our officials know this, the media knows this, and in the back of our minds, we know this.

Yeah, you can tell who actually watched that video/read that link (which I cited as 100% reliable, but sure, you dismiss them out of hand just because they're 'online' or 'social media', why not, because apparently experts don't use those), and who's still in denial, still trying to claim what is quickly becoming a global stance is somehow petty enough that 'strawman' is even a valid response at this point. I do not care for your arguments. They are pointless and ineffectual. You win. If that's what you need to hear to stop acting like this isn't a major crisis, so be it. You win, forever. Pat on the back. Gold star for you.

And here I thought Exiles were supposed to be math-whizzes. Can't even understand the lily pond problem...

__

STL Wedding officially delayed a year. This is not going to be a simple process at all. So, surprise surprise, travel insurance has a pandemic clause, which COVID-19 officially as of today. Even if you booked before the pandemic hit. We're just going to wait to see if the airline cancels closer to the date, else we have to rebook, postpone, rebook...messy. The one plus side right now is Americans *still* aren't taking it seriously so we're getting the jump on them regarding rescheduling. That said, our emergency skype call with the wedding planner over there was a very different tone to our regular scheduled one last week.

One of my groomsmen who lives a city away has come down with a fever and aches, but that could be anything. Still, his work said last week that there's to be no moving between his office and the Sydney one.

I discovered this morning that one of my neighbours had a trip to Milan planned for April. Yeah, that's not happening. But this is the sickening bit: her airline offered to upgrade her to business class for very cheap. That's reprehensible. Thankfully she's a former nurse so she knows what's what.

The official word here is confusing. On one hand, the authorities are saying: be alert, be calm, be aware. On the other hand, they're proudly saying large festivals and events are still going ahead despite proof that they're a main source of transmission. And it's like, dude. How exactly does one stay 'alert' in a crowd like that?

Amid this sort of mixed messaging, things will move very quickly. And if they don't? Well, that's awesome. We'll have a bit of extra rice and some medication to get through. This is one of those situations where being prepared is a win-win. Not being prepared, not taking it seriously, is a lose-lose. So...is it really that hard a choice?

Panic is never good. Never useful. But choosing complacency as some sort of rebuke of it when the situation warrants high alert is equally unhelpful. And you have every indication now that high alert is a sane, logical state. This is probably not something I need to say to any Exile, but it's time to take care of number one. Whether that's you alone, your family, friends...tight-knit community...whatever it is, it's blatantly clear that the onus lies with you to exercise polite but firm social distancing, good hygiene. Especially if you're otherwise healthy, because it's when those who aren't get sick that they'll need that hospital bed more than you. And we've already heard plenty of stories coming from Italy of doctors having to choose between intubating a healthy 40 year old, a sickly 60 year old, and a middling 50 year old with kids. I cannot imagine the stress of such a choice.