I'm wondering

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jsuslak313 wrote:

"

roundishcap wrote:

Not trying to make conspiracies here, but it is pretty accepted by the majority of people that drop rates are not uniform and do change over time.

....while casually describing a conspiracy. It is NOT accepted by the majority that drop rates change over time lol. That is pretty much the entire conspiracy theory that the extreme minority hold right there.

What it actually is? That is what's known as this new concept called "RNG loot". Have you heard about it? It literally translates to: Your loot experience changes from time to time. GGG doesn't NEED to change it manually.

It's amazing how truly rock-bottom some thoughts are....probability and RNG is just that...RANDOM until you hit enough sample size. RNG in a public game space like this is not character-to-character, but rather game-wide. That makes it appear far more volatile (through various videos) than it truly is mathematically.

As with any and all probabilities and randomness, you can get STREAKS of both negative and positive. What you perceive as "omg they CHANGED THE LOOT DROPS" is simply a long streak of bad luck. OR it is a reaction to an abnormal streak of GOOD luck, making the perceived drop rate change even more drastic.

if you really, truly, TRULY believe that GGG has someone sitting in front of a computer....all league....comparing hard coded %s and current maximum drops and tweaking these regularly, you are out of your mind. GGG has better things to do, the people they PAY have better things to do.

GGG adjusts drops all the time, even with patchless updates.

I know how probability works, but what I am implying is that everyone has different inherent odds based on a number of factors. That is how most arpgs are programmed anyway. Like Diablo 2's map generation was based on a random string on character creation. Not that that means much for poe since we can't analyze it as hard. Although to be perfectly and completely honest, diablo 2 is much much much simpler and the change can have its rng totally decoded and people can manipulate it in very very funny ways. People have figured this out largely due to the fact that single player seeds don't change and they can tinker with it. the fundamental principle is that all games aren't perfectly random and are adjustable by their developers.

What I believe is that game designers make systems that affect RNG in a large number of ways and they can adjust it on the fly if need be (usually in the players favor). Not that they are micromanaging it. It is what they literally pay people to make and design and maintain. They don't just launch a league and not support it. They announce some chances in patch notes, but many are undocumented and do not need to be. However that being true, some people would like to know if a certain mechanic is hot or cold relatively, or just what the base odds are for seeing certain interactions like the Trialmaster or a harvest boss.

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jsuslak313 wrote:

"

roundishcap wrote:

Not trying to make conspiracies here, but it is pretty accepted by the majority of people that drop rates are not uniform and do change over time.

....while casually describing a conspiracy. It is NOT accepted by the majority that drop rates change over time lol. That is pretty much the entire conspiracy theory that the extreme minority hold right there.

What it actually is? That is what's known as this new concept called "RNG loot". Have you heard about it? It literally translates to: Your loot experience changes from time to time. GGG doesn't NEED to change it manually.

It's amazing how truly rock-bottom some thoughts are....probability and RNG is just that...RANDOM until you hit enough sample size. RNG in a public game space like this is not character-to-character, but rather game-wide. That makes it appear far more volatile (through various videos) than it truly is mathematically.

As with any and all probabilities and randomness, you can get STREAKS of both negative and positive. What you perceive as "omg they CHANGED THE LOOT DROPS" is simply a long streak of bad luck. OR it is a reaction to an abnormal streak of GOOD luck, making the perceived drop rate change even more drastic.

if you really, truly, TRULY believe that GGG has someone sitting in front of a computer....all league....comparing hard coded %s and current maximum drops and tweaking these regularly, you are out of your mind. GGG has better things to do, the people they PAY have better things to do.

Sure sure, but can GGG OFFICIALLY Confirm your theory? No? hmmmm...

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jsuslak313 wrote:

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Coconutdoggy wrote:

Most don't understand that lmao hahahah

It is so depressing.

Ask yourselves: what would GGG even gain by doing something like this, in the shadows or outright announcing it? They don't give a damn how many sacrifice frags have dropped! They don't give a damn how many total mirrors have dropped! Dedicating resources to monitoring these things and changing them based on, what?, is just plain taking their money and throwing it in the garbage.

The only time GGG EVER intervenes in drop rates and loot issues are when we see unintentional RIDICULOUS drops such as the things that are found within the first week of a league. Beyond getting the outliers corrected, they are NOT and never will be micro-managing drop rates and proportions.

For every personal example of "have the drop rates been lowered?" that you experience, another person will be seeing the exact opposite. I myself experienced this in the very short time I played this league. For the first time in my memory, I dropped ZERO rare items before Brutus. Typically by then, I've sold at least a full inventory or two. But almost immediately after creating a thread about it, a flurry of folks who saw the opposite. And then I started a new character and got two rare drops from Hillock. Yes, I see the irony in myself creating a thread about bad rng....but this was one of the only rng threads I've EVER created and it was based on years and years and years of alternate experience. I just happened to hit some extremely bad luck. So I left that thread even MORE trusting in RNG over GGG interference.

Oh dude, you so out of the game industry.

Have you hear about game sessions that should be design in a repetitive way for a certain periods to hold person to play for more time. There is freaking Institution of ("How to force customer to do what we need by designing a game sesion"). So outdated dude, or at least very far from game industries...

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Aynix wrote:

I have not heard my goverm. saying that there are no vampires in my country either. Does that mean there are vampires in my country?

Yes.

my god....its no wonder society is going to hell in a hand-basket, and collective intelligence of newer generations is declining.

I will NOT argue any further with tinfoil hats based in a completely alternate reality. I simply will not.

1) GGG does not adjust drop rates regularly, through shadow patches, through sneaky means, partway through a league, etc. They have the capability to do so, but 100%, a THOUSAND %, do not do it. There is no benefit to them doing this, there is no monetary incentive to spend on people doing this, nothing. It. does. not. happen. People claiming to understand probability, and still make claims against this....do NOT understand probability!

2) They don't need to outright say they don't do it, for it to be true. Much like the news doesn't have to tell you "The sky will NOT be falling on you today", or "Today, gravity will continue to keep hold of you". Again, there is no benefit to them to lend credence to completely baffling and nutty conspiracy theories such as micromanaged drop rates. They don't need to "prove" probability for it to remain true. They don't need to "prove" every strong of bad or good luck and how it fits in the grand scheme of set rates.

3) I cannot say this strongly enough: There is no such thing as an RNG "seed". The sheer idea of something like this existing is a complete denial of mathematics, probability, randomness, and percentages. THEY DO NOT NEED SEEDS! RNG alone creates a seed-like effect. No developer alive is going to create an entirely separate list of drop rates, or multiple sets, that get randomly chosen based on ANOTHER totally arbitrary system. There is absolutely no need for that. I'll repeat: people who claim to understand probability and then offer this ridiculous idea...do NOT understand probability!

End of story. Other's lack of sense and critical thinking is not grounds for GGG to "prove" they are doing any of this.

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Pashid wrote:

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Pestilence_PoE wrote:

Jungroan confirmed he has streamer client, thats how he got 30k+ harvest juice on one map.

And if a streamer comes up and tells you that he's a time traveler you'd also believe him?
People take sarcasm way too serious and literal.

I was being sarcastic..

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jsuslak313 wrote:

3) I cannot say this strongly enough: There is no such thing as an RNG "seed". The sheer idea of something like this existing is a complete denial of mathematics, probability, randomness, and percentages. THEY DO NOT NEED SEEDS! RNG alone creates a seed-like effect.

That is simply not true. There was a bug six years ago or so that resulted in specific characters being unable to drop prime resonators or spawn certain delve bosses. This happened and was openly communicated once the problem was identified and fixed.

There is no true rng in software and using prng seeds is a valid approach. I do however agree with everything else you said, assuming GGG deliberately uses this to "screw portions of the playerbase over" is absurd.

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Angrybagel wrote:

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Aynix wrote:

I have not heard my goverm. saying that there are no vampires in my country either. Does that mean there are vampires in my country?

Yes.

Damn, guess I will buy some garlic

"

Ulsarek wrote:

There is no true rng in software and using prng seeds is a valid approach. I do however agree with everything else you said, assuming GGG deliberately uses this to "screw portions of the playerbase over" is absurd.

https://www.britannica.com/technology/computer/The-first-computer

RNG been dead since 1822.

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Ulsarek wrote:

That is simply not true. There was a bug six years ago or so that resulted in specific characters being unable to drop prime resonators or spawn certain delve bosses. This happened and was openly communicated once the problem was identified and fixed.

I was there for this and you are mildly wrong about the outcome. It was not a "seed", but rather a procedural issue with how Delve laid out content that became visible. The nodes that you hadn't reached yet, but were visible on your map were pre-loaded along with chests. The "bug" was an interaction with the mine layout and an unintended erasure of chest contents.

The "seed" talk was all conspiracy theory circulating en masse by those missing out. Much like it does today...When in fact this was a simple delve bug. They tied the chest loot to the wrong procedure generation. This has actually happened with chests quite a few times in PoE history (and in Diablo history too actually...).

I would also point out that this was very audibly FIXED by GGG quite quickly, actually giving more evidence that there is NO RNG seed.



Of course it is not "true" rng...insofar as saying that it is "true random". It is a proportional response, created with a SET proportional value. A random number generator is NEVER going to be "true random" because you always need to assign the parameters to a finite number for the machine to do its thing. You can't tell a machine to "choose a number between -inf and +inf"...it will hang.