New SARS-CoV-2 / COVID-19 Thread

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Johny_Snow wrote:

Lets do some quick calculations.

1% death rate
but since there will not be space at hospitals plenty more people will die who otherwise would be saved
so lets bump it to 3%
3% out of 70% of the population, so lets say 3% out of 225 million
do the math

but this is not all, about 10% of these cases require hospital intervention
so you might as well put 10% out of the 225 million

of course there is a number of people who don't necessarily need hospitalization but still have high fever, so they are unlikely to be able to work either

you are looking at 20% of 225 million people not being able to work

this is without considering other factors, like the inability of the healthcare system to manage other cases, which have nothing to do with covid and the psychological effect when thousands of your compatriots are dying every day

Booming economy!

There wont be open hospitals with no economy though since they are paid by insurance premiums of people with jobs and tax payers money through taxes from jobs. Already in Pullman Washington they are cutting HC salary 25% today as money is not coming in. What do you think happens in two more weeks of this? So all other issues requiring hospitals will succumb too.

There are plans for ensured hospital care up till the end of May. At least in the US. Or do you expect them to shut the hospitals down? Everybody knows what the lockdown is about, everybody understands they do it to keep the healthcare system working. They are not closing anything.

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Johny_Snow wrote:

There are plans for ensured hospital care up till the end of May. At least in the US. Or do you expect them to shut the hospitals down? Everybody knows what the lockdown is about, everybody understands they do it to keep the healthcare system working. They are not closing anything.

Not only will Hospitals shutter food and other essentials will. You see these essentials do not magically appear out of a genie bottle. They require payment. Payment requires money. You shut down the country’s ability to make money, you’re gonna shut them down too.

Economy = Real National health.

I think you are ill informed. As much as I don't like the government they have plans, they have reserves, they have loans, there are also places around the world and sectors of the economy which are still operational (hence why its called closing the non-essential businesses). Finally, it wont last years, the world economy can handle several months of this. There will be recession and unemployment but the alternative is millions of deaths for pretty much the same thing.

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Johny_Snow wrote:

I think you are ill informed. As much as I don't like the government they have plans, they have reserves, they have loans, there are also places around the world and sectors of the economy which are still operational (hence why its called closing the non-essential businesses). Finally, it wont last years, the world economy can handle several months of this. There will be recession and unemployment but the alternative is millions of deaths for pretty much the same thing.

Fauci said that we can start to "relax" social distancing once there are "no new cases, no deaths. That would keep us in a lockdown for many months or years. And if the virus becomes endemic, forever since it's been 40 years and no AIDS vaccine yet.

Why would "essential" service put their ass on the line when you get to stay at home? Moreover why work when you can't enjoy it and nothing to buy since all non-essential is shut down? Those essential workers will get tired of it real quick and are as amazon and food service worker are threatening strike.

most economies went into booms during/after pandemics or wars which lost millions so I doubt we couldnt just roll with it and take the loses. What we won't be able to do is handle Great Depression that is coming.

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The_Impeacher wrote:

Factual numbers are not negotiable. Have a look: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

I have repeatedly corrected your apparent misunderstandings of statistical reporting in several posts.

I can only assume now that either you do not understand what the numbers mean and how they are derived or that you are purposefully acting to misinform the people here for "reasons unknown."

Either you do not comprehend why your statements concerning mortality and death rates are wrong or are purposefully lying. Which one is it?

nm no politics i forgot

Global numbers of the day! (approximate so far)

Approx 75,000 new cases

Approx 23,600 resolved cases

Approx 5,600 deaths

Approx 18,000 recoveries

Nearly 1 in 3 of resolved cases today resulted in death.

It's going to take a long time to catch up when over 50,000 new unresolved cases pile up each day.

When daily resolved numbers start to outpace daily new case numbers, we're on our way to recovery!

Prepare for to hunker down until a way into 2021. Grow a garden. Get some chickens.

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Exile009 wrote:

Also, it seems that nations that have widespread immunization programs against TB are more resistant to this virus. Meanwhile, certain countries don't immunize their people against TB anymore, and are consequently facing the worst of it. Guess which nations those are...

https://www.forbes.com/sites/ericmack/2020/03/31/a-vaccine-from-the-1920s-could-help-fight-the-coronavirus-pandemic/#221da6611220

Actual paper - https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.24.20042937v1.full.pdf

Mind you that this so far only shows correlation, not necessarily causation. And this comes from the NYIT College of Osteopathic Medicine, so take what they say with a grain of salt - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Osteopathy

That's pretty neato, but only raises even more questions. :)

What we do know is that mortality rates vary by country.

That's... upsetting. It's upsetting because the suggestion there is "there is something we could do about this" and whatever that "something" was, it wasn't done.

There's some indication, IIRC, that the severity of the infection is possibly correlated with the "amount of virus the person was exposed to." Simple, but not really - A chance encounter which slowly progressed to a hospitalized infection is more survivable, in general, than a direct infection with simply "more virus in it." (Large fluid/globules of heavily populated virus/etc) In essence - The virus can quickly overwhelm a person's immune system and set it on a self-destructive track. (Not including those with contributory pre-existing conditions.)

So, what if continued and repeated viral contact and infection in large doses is more common in certain situations than in others? Then, it follows that fatality rates would be higher in turn.

Sitting on ones front-porch, in fresh air, with little close/intimate contact with others, perhaps even due to cultural practices, and getting the virus due to receiving a small airborne dose or something from a surface that was touched might be a "best case" infection rather than getting coughed on in the face, in constant close contact with the infected, etc. (Seems naturally intuitive, but the reasoning here is that there is something operating in national differences other than "general quality of overall healthcare system."

The possible mechanisms of a trained immune system, described in the paper, are interesting, but aren't really definitive as the paper points out.

PS: On "Osteopathic Medicine" /sigh... Unfortunately, there are actually two different kinds of "Osteopaths." Osteopathic medicine is legitimate, but there are a lot of crackpots and opportunists out there that take part of it and then turn it into "magic" in what I can only assume is a desire to defraud people. And, to make it worse, there are organizations out there claiming to be "Osteopathic" but they're little more than crazier than usual chiropractors with much more added Voodoo Medicine. Personally, I think some of them should be put in prison for the horrible things they do to people and the money-grubbing greed that fuels their "practice." I also think that many Chiropractors deserve the same thing. (A neighbor of mine was repeatedly predated upon by a local "Osteopath" trundling out very rapid diagnoses of "Lyme Disease" and then peddling magic-oil cures sold out of their office for "Lyme Disease." A lawsuit should be forthcoming against this "Physician" by this neighbor's family members who now suffer permanent disability from this so-called "Doctor's" practices. (Basically... lost a friggin leg due to malpractice by an "Osteopath.") Friggin' quacks. :/ )

PS: I can't get a "multi-quote" feature to work if it's present on this forum. And, editing an existing post can be problmatic due to the way this board stores cookies/post-data. IOW - Sorry for the multipost.

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The_Impeacher wrote:

Global numbers of the day! (approximate so far)

Approx 75,000 new cases

Approx 23,600 resolved cases

Approx 5,600 deaths

Approx 18,000 recoveries

Nearly 1 in 3 of resolved cases today resulted in death.

It's going to take a long time to catch up when over 50,000 new unresolved cases pile up each day.

When daily resolved numbers start to outpace daily new case numbers, we're on our way to recovery!

Prepare for to hunker down until a way into 2021. Grow a garden. Get some chickens.

Earth only supported like 1 billion grow your own...It has 7+ billion.

Nobody is even pretending we’ll have a vaccine soon. Either find a way to keep society going while also fighting it or we can just shut down until there’s a fix and become Rawanda with lots of culling of those who cant manage the chickens and garden.