Veiled Orb

In past leagues it really took around 3 to 4 Catarinas to drop an Orb. I always do it in T16 8mods.

What sample size would say: okay, this is bad?

I'm honestly playing the league currently only because of Betrayal.

I want to make it clear that I didn't come to this post looking for a fight. I just want to demonstrate that there have been changes.
Unfortunately there is no data on which to create an analysis, but it is never too late to start.

Soon I will create a cut with the drops I will perform to create veracity to what I say

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Andershow6 wrote:

In past leagues it really took around 3 to 4 Catarinas to drop an Orb.

It was different orb. It was changed last league, veild chaos orbs gone replaced by veiled orbs, they work differently (stronger), drop changed and removed from non mastermind sources.

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Nomancs wrote:

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Andershow6 wrote:

In past leagues it really took around 3 to 4 Catarinas to drop an Orb.

It was different orb. It was changed last league, veild chaos orbs gone replaced by veiled orbs, they work differently (stronger), drop changed and removed from non mastermind sources.

In 3.24 it was already Veiled Orb.

"

Andershow6 wrote:

In past leagues it really took around 3 to 4 Catarinas to drop an Orb. I always do it in T16 8mods.

What sample size would say: okay, this is bad?

I'm honestly playing the league currently only because of Betrayal.

I want to make it clear that I didn't come to this post looking for a fight. I just want to demonstrate that there have been changes.
Unfortunately there is no data on which to create an analysis, but it is never too late to start.

Soon I will create a cut with the drops I will perform to create veracity to what I say

As an honest conversation about sample sizes:

Lets assume we want to see if something has a droprate of 1/4. We then run 200 catrinas and get 20 drops. The chance of this happening is around 0.000005%, aka "statistically nearly impossible". In comparison if we ran 50 and had 5 drops the chance is around 0.7% aka "about one in a hundred people are getting this unlucky". Your 2 in 33 is about 0.5% at a 1/4 chance for comparison

So basically it depends on both what we want to disprove as a droprate and how many drops we get over a certain sample size.

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Andershow6 wrote:

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Nomancs wrote:

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Andershow6 wrote:

In past leagues it really took around 3 to 4 Catarinas to drop an Orb.

It was different orb. It was changed last league, veild chaos orbs gone replaced by veiled orbs, they work differently (stronger), drop changed and removed from non mastermind sources.

In 3.24 it was already Veiled Orb.

Yes, that is what I wrote, 3.24 was last league, now is 3.25. So when you talk about „past leagues” (multiple), you’re talking about other orb that was removed and replaced.

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Yes, that is what I wrote, 3.24 was last league, now is 3.25. So when you talk about „past leagues” (multiple), you’re talking about other orb that was removed and replaced.

My apologies.
let me correct.

Last league was 3-4 for 1 Veiled Orb.
Previous leagues the same rate 3 to 4 for 1 Veiled Chaos Orbs.

Before turning into an orb.
Aisling sold on TFT for 3 to 5 div each (most of the time)
My main farm since Ritual 3.13 is Betrayal :)
I love this mechanic unfortunately it got worse as the leagues passed

"

As an honest conversation about sample sizes:

Lets assume we want to see if something has a droprate of 1/4. We then run 200 catrinas and get 20 drops. The chance of this happening is around 0.000005%, aka "statistically nearly impossible". In comparison if we ran 50 and had 5 drops the chance is around 0.7% aka "about one in a hundred people are getting this unlucky". Your 2 in 33 is about 0.5% at a 1/4 chance for comparison

So basically it depends on both what we want to disprove as a droprate and how many drops we get over a certain sample size.

I'm thinking about redoing the count.
perform 50 Catarinas.
Maybe that was just a streak of bad luck.
After these 50 I will reset again and include rarity in the gear to see if the drop rate changes.

Obviously it will take me a few days to finish this process, as it takes me around 20 minutes each(release+fight)

IIR has no effect on boss drops, neither does IIQ

"

Andershow6 wrote:

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Yes, that is what I wrote, 3.24 was last league, now is 3.25. So when you talk about „past leagues” (multiple), you’re talking about other orb that was removed and replaced.

My apologies.
let me correct.

Last league was 3-4 for 1 Veiled Orb.
Previous leagues the same rate 3 to 4 for 1 Veiled Chaos Orbs.

Before turning into an orb.
Aisling sold on TFT for 3 to 5 div each (most of the time)
My main farm since Ritual 3.13 is Betrayal :)
I love this mechanic unfortunately it got worse as the leagues passed

I did run 4 this league and had 2 orbs but this means nothing, based on just this I have way better ratio than I had last league, I don’t remember how many I had to run to get veiled orb I needed for helmet, but it was worse than now by a lot. If I would base it only on my small sample, I would say loot was buffed, but I don’t think it was. I think you was lucky last league and now you’re unlucky in this one. Without huge sample of tests, it will be just opinion of people (mostly those that assume they’re nerfed every league, as people who do fine mostly don’t care).

Tho, you could collect Mastermind data in each league for further reference. It is a lot of work, data sampla could still be too small, so I will not push you to do it.

Late to the party but im trying it out and ive ran soon 60 masterminds and gotten 1 orb.
You get a couple of catarina per hour when you only focus safehouses, tp out as soon as you complete all encounters.
Getting 5 in a row seems more than unlikely. Also saw someone running 42 in a row without an orb before quitting