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Orb went up a little in past 2 days. If the shadow nerf is real, it will keep climbing.
Well, to be honest (and maybe Devil's advocate against myself), Fracturing Orbs have been steadily climbing for over a week, and the price increase since I "felt" a difference in drops isn't backing up my impressions.
That said, I don't think that believing in a nerf is anywhere near "tinfoil territory", as they have said they sometimes adjust rates mid-league, and IF they were to change something to decrease the amount of 'perfect' items in the league, attacking Fracturing Orbs would probably be a natural way to go. So these people doing everything they can to ridicule people for suspecting a nerf is just sad to see.
That said #2, I'm more unsure of a nerf now than I was in the moment of making the thread. I could just have been overly lucky for 5-6 days in a row, steadily filling up orbs at around 1 every 15-20 maps. I'm still averaging (steadily) more than that, but not by a drastic amount.
If they wanted to attack perfect items then the droprate of hinekoras locks would be the way to go. Fracturing orbs are at the very beginning of the crafting process and only guarantee one mod, thats - by itself - as far from perfect as it could be