Harbinger nerf?

I'm not really the one to cry wolf, but I really hate mid-league nerfs, especially shadow nerfs.

The last week, I have been farming Harbinger hard, with scarabs, sextants and the whole shebang. I've been filling up fracturing orbs at a pretty even pace through the whole week, and we're talking a sizeable sample pool with more than a hundred maps. Yesterday and today? Nothing, not even a shard. Nada. Nix. Even the other orbs seem nerfed.

Am I the only one noticing some changes here, or have they screwed over us mortal folks, because the immortal folks are crafting too many perfect weapons with out fracturing orbs?
Sometimes, just sometimes, you should really consider adapting to the world, instead of demanding that the world adapts to you.
Last bumped on Jan 16, 2024, 1:50:04 PM
Even if it is happened, blame trade, not GGG.
do you know what RNG is?
"
BrettLee wrote:
do you know what RNG is?


Yes. Do you? When we're talking hundreds of maps here, we have a pretty sizeable sample pool to make out a pretty clear tendency. How many maps have you run, to rule out a shadow nerf?
Sometimes, just sometimes, you should really consider adapting to the world, instead of demanding that the world adapts to you.
"
Phrazz wrote:
"
BrettLee wrote:
do you know what RNG is?


Yes. Do you? When we're talking hundreds of maps here, we have a pretty sizeable sample pool to make out a pretty clear tendency. How many maps have you run, to rule out a shadow nerf?


You really don't know what RNG is lol

Dys an sohm
Rohs an kyn
Sahl djahs afah
Mah morn narr
"
Coconutdoggy wrote:
You really don't know what RNG is lol


Everyone knows what RNG is, means and acts like. You are free to believe that there hasn't been a shadow nerf, and in 9/10 situations, I would probably agree with you. But going from seeing one clear tendency in ~200 maps, to see a complete different tendency in the next ~200 is making me doubt the pure RNG here.

But if you've run that many maps with Harby sextants, scarabs and map device Harby and not seen a shift, you are allowed to write it down to pure RNG. But I suspect you are running fully juiced maps and couldn't care less about Harbinger, and are just talking generally.
Sometimes, just sometimes, you should really consider adapting to the world, instead of demanding that the world adapts to you.
"
Phrazz wrote:
"
Coconutdoggy wrote:
You really don't know what RNG is lol


Everyone knows what RNG is, means and acts like. You are free to believe that there hasn't been a shadow nerf, and in 9/10 situations, I would probably agree with you. But going from seeing one clear tendency in ~200 maps, to see a complete different tendency in the next ~200 is making me doubt the pure RNG here.

But if you've run that many maps with Harby sextants, scarabs and map device Harby and not seen a shift, you are allowed to write it down to pure RNG. But I suspect you are running fully juiced maps and couldn't care less about Harbinger, and are just talking generally.

While I am not denying it might feel fishy, just from a general statistical standpoint the samples size is indeed too small, because based off of AerOs findings (streamer with actually thousands of maps into harbinger) youre supposed to drop around 6-7 shards per 100 maps. Seeing none in that amount therefore seems unlikely, but its not yet unlikely "enough" to call it a shadow nerf with certainty. I am interested in this though - can u give the full atlas tree, map setup (scarabs, sextants) and strat u run? I might contribute and just copy it to see if I can replicate yours (or his) results.

Also, a shadow nerf to one of the weaker strats that also does not benefit from quant, rarity OR pack size as far as I know seems kinda unlikely.. I would have to ask "why?" with a big fat question mark. Like, those shards are the only thing making it barely worth farming.
"
Vennto wrote:
Also, a shadow nerf to one of the weaker strats that also does not benefit from quant, rarity OR pack size as far as I know seems kinda unlikely.. I would have to ask "why?" with a big fat question mark. Like, those shards are the only thing making it barely worth farming.


The shadow cabal is ever watchful..

If they would stealth nerf anything it would be T7 farms. No one is hurt by someone spamming City Square x Harbis
The opposite of knowledge is not illiteracy, but the illusion of knowledge.
"
Vennto wrote:

While I am not denying it might feel fishy, just from a general statistical standpoint the samples size is indeed too small, because based off of AerOs findings (streamer with actually thousands of maps into harbinger) youre supposed to drop around 6-7 shards per 100 maps. Seeing none in that amount therefore seems unlikely, but its not yet unlikely "enough" to call it a shadow nerf with certainty. I am interested in this though - can u give the full atlas tree, map setup (scarabs, sextants) and strat u run? I might contribute and just copy it to see if I can replicate yours (or his) results.

Also, a shadow nerf to one of the weaker strats that also does not benefit from quant, rarity OR pack size as far as I know seems kinda unlikely.. I would have to ask "why?" with a big fat question mark. Like, those shards are the only thing making it barely worth farming.


I agree that the sample size is small, that's why I framed it as a question, made a thread to see if anyone else had some experience here. And as you say; Harbinger isn't affected by neither player, map or atlas rarity/quantity, so it becomes as a controlled environment as possible in PoE.

While the strat is indeed weaker, with so much currency available, fracturing orbs become very powerful - and they all gets funneled to the people that can actually afford to craft 'perfect' items. I've completed a fair amount, from when they were worth just north of 20, up until the surpassed 29. They go like hot butter. So I do of course not think they've nerfed "the strat" directly, but rather nerfed the availability of fracturing orbs. Sadly, I don't remember the amount of orbs available on trade through-out the week, or else I could compare the availability.

And regarding AerO, as far as I know, is not full-clearing the maps, beating all Harbingers. I had FAR(!!!) more than 6-7 shards per 100 throughout this week, which may just imply I've been overly lucky. But as I said, none this weekend.

When it comes to the tree, the only nodes that matters, are the Harbinger nodes. I have them, running guilded scarabs and of course 4-charged compasses.

"
ArtCrusade wrote:
No one is hurt by someone spamming City Square x Harbis


Every crafter out there is. As I said earlier; no one is claiming they've nerfed a poor mans strat, but rather nerfed the availability of fracturing orbs.
Sometimes, just sometimes, you should really consider adapting to the world, instead of demanding that the world adapts to you.
Last edited by Phrazz on Jan 13, 2024, 11:34:39 PM
Wait few more days and check price of fracturing orb. If they indeed shadow nerfed drop of it, price of them will be much higher because of less supply (doubt that the demand will change). Thats the easiest way.

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