Incursion bug (ruthless)
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The tree is different for ruthless, where I play. May be this bug is only in ruthless
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Yea the 460% * 6% base = 27.6% overall chance for your maps to contain Alva. It's not guaranteed.
cat is a rue
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^ Plus 6 for the base chance? 33.6%?
Eventually, she should spawn on the last set in maps. But at a 1 in 3, you can easily lose those odds repeatedly. |
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" It's not guaranteed, but after 20-30 maps it's a little unlikely |
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The 6% base chance is already calculated in, that's what's getting multiplied by the increased chance.
(1 − 0.27 6)^20 = (0.724)^20 = 0.156% chance of no occurrence in 20 maps. This is unlikely, but not in the realms of absurdity. Every ~600th Alva occurence would be as such, assuming normal distribution. Also reporting bias, cuz you wouldn't necessarily notice the ranges from highroll to slightly low roll. If this would continue to like the 100th map, then it could maybe up to something fishy. cat is a rue
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Yea 6% chance is even too high, because that's for base game. I can't really find the real percentage, I think it's half of that.
https://imgur.com/a/EBtEIQH cat is a rue Last edited by DatBulletGuy#3358 on May 12, 2026, 5:42:49 PM
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" " You need to also take into consideration how Ruthless is different in terms of Extra Content--which also includes Master Missions. https://www.poewiki.net/wiki/Ruthless_mode#League_content_mechanics I don't have experience with Ruthless either, but assuming no blocked mechanics or increased chances for the other mechanics in this pool, I'd expect a (1 + 4.6) / (15 + 4.6) = ~28.6% chance that when a mechanic appears, it's Alva. But, any other mechanics with increased chance would lower Alva's chance. |
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UPDATE: more testing has shown that with "Artefacts of the Vaal" in ruthless Alva spawns, but with much lower chance. It seems that the bug is that "Artefacts of the Vaal" ignores all the "increased chance to contain Alva" nodes
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