Our Event Series Has Ended!
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Thanks for the fun events. I enjoyed them all during my holiday time - they all were unique. I couldn't even say which one I enjoyed most: Delve was great but it delve, Atlas Invasion was a blast and fun time and Delirium Everywhere was a nice increase of difficulty.
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Thanks for the event series, helped me learn a lot more about the game.
Also nice MTX rewards. Thank you. | |
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thanks doods
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thank you so much for the events, portals, boxes and prizes!
already waiting for 3.17 |
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So, I made three level 90 chars in atlas invasion SSF. Since a lot a people played that league, it made sense that I could get zero prizes.
But, in the delirium everywhere event, I made 7 level 80+ chars. There were a total of 8424 level 80+ chars across the 4 league variations. There were a total of 2100 prizes for level 80+ chars. There were a total of 14740 level 70+ chars across the 4 league variations. There were a total of 3000 prizes for level 70+ chars. There were a total of 17996 level 60+ chars across the 4 league variations. There were a total of 3000 prizes for level 60+ chars. Guess what I got? Nothing. According to my calculations, the chances of that happening? First, chances of getting zero level 80 award: {(8424-2100)/8424}^7 * 100 = 13.437% Second, chances of getting zero level 70 award: {(14740-3000)/14740}^7 * 100 = 20.333% Third, chances of getting zero level 60 award: {(17996-3000)/17996}^7 * 100 = 27.899% TLDR, chances of me getting zero award overall is 0.13437*0.20333*0.27899*100 = 0.7622% (less than 1%) My hypothesis is that 1. You GGG don't give a single effort to evenly distribute the prizes. 2. Maybe you select only a few accounts and give them all the prizes. 3. The number of prizes is a fraud. As a result, I am never going to participate in any more of your "events". Thanks for the twitch drops anyway. Last edited by Sielin on Jan 11, 2022, 10:15:42 PM
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" Pretty sure your math is wrong. You had 7/8,424 of a chance to get a level 80+ prize, drawn 2,100 times. That means you had a 1.745% chance of getting a prize. I mean seriously, think about it: 7 characters mean you had 86% chance to get a prize? That's laughable. Even if every character only got 1 prize, only 25% of characters could get a prize. Support a free Hong Kong. I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use. -Galileo Galilei Last edited by Archwizard on Jan 11, 2022, 11:18:18 PM
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I put in my level 71 effort for Delirium SSF, but alas, no prizes other than the level 50 consolation prize. Still, I had fun. At first I played a few levels and quit. Then after a few days I was drawn back, wondering how well I could do if I put in some serious effort. In the end, the experience paid off. It was really challenging and I learned quite a bit.
Thanks for the challenge -- I look forward to more in the future. |
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" Your calculations are waaaay wrong. Alright, have it your way. Your way of drawing 2100 times is a more accurate way of calculation. This case is true if GGG did nothing to evenly distribute the prizes and everything was pure random. Then: For a level 80+ prize, I had 8417/8424 chance to NOT get a prize for one draw. Drawing 2100 times mean I had 17.45% of getting zero prizes. So, 82.55% of getting AT LEAST one level 80+ prize. You could do the same for other level prizes. The results: Chances of getting zero level 70 award: (14733/14740)^3000 * 100 = 24.05% Chances of getting zero level 60 award: (17989/17996)^3000 * 100 = 31.13% So the chances of me getting zero prize in everything is 1.306%. Therefore, chances of me getting AT LEAST one prize is 98.694%. Not that much of a difference there is it? EDIT: LOL Walkiry thanks for your effort anyways! Last edited by Sielin on Jan 12, 2022, 2:02:57 AM
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" Sigh. The chances of *not* getting a prize on each level 80 draw were 8417/8424. There were 2100 independent draws. So you multiply the chances of not getting a prize each time, 2,100 times. (8417/8424)^2100 = 0.1745, or 17.45% chance of not getting any prize from the 2,100 level 80 draws. Which translates to 82.55% chance of getting at least one prize. (14733/14740)^3000 = 0.2405, or 24.05% chance of not getting one of the 70+ prizes. (17989/17996)^3000 = 0.3113, or 31.13% chance of not getting one of the 60+ prizes. That's assuming the 70+ and 60+ prizes includes everyone above (hence, 80+ has 3 chances at a prize). EDIT: Dammit Sielin, you beat me to the punch LOL Last edited by Walkiry on Jan 12, 2022, 1:52:37 AM
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Its bad we hve no races for year, and 4 of them 1 by one, so you cant play 1 full event. You need to place better time for this races, beacause they was good! And i would like to play every event more.
Last edited by JahWar on Jan 12, 2022, 2:03:32 AM
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