[outdated] Caustic Arrow Solo Map MFer (20/300+)
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Distribution of Prefixes and Suffixes Following Chaos Spam
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GGG apparently has not disclosed the exact details about how chaos orbs work other than it randomly rerolls affixes when applied to a rare item. So it's up to the community to work out the details on their own. I've not found any community work on this issue, so, I'm tackling it myself :-) Here's what I've found so far: ================= I spent 100 chaos tonight, spamming my 6-link, iLevel 84 Vaal Regalia in an attempt to get a feel for how often 4, 5 and 6 affixes roll and what the distribution of affixes are in the case of 4 and 5. When using an int chest piece for this task some ambiguity arises when assessing results: Stun and Block Recovery can roll on its own as a suffix or as a combination trait, yielding both increased ES% as well as S/B recovery, as a prefix. Ambiguity arises in some cases because the game does not display the rolled affixes per se, but instead adds up values and displays totals. So if you've rolled a chest that shows an ES% value as well as a B/S recovery value, several possibilities arise: 1) The displayed value represents a single affix: * B/S recov + ES% suffix 2) The displayed value represents 2 affixes which might occur in the following ways: * ES% prefix --- B/S recov + ES% suffix * B/S recov + ES% prefix --- B/S recov suffix * ES% prefix --- B/S recov suffix 3) The displayed value represents 3 affixes: * ES% prefix --- B/S recov + ES% prefix --- B/S recov suffix Usually you can use Haku's crafting table along with the minimum and maximum ranges of these affixes to precisely determine which of the above cases you're looking at. However, I ran into 4 cases which I was unable to disambiguate. I set these 4 cases aside. ================= Considering just the 96 unambiguous outcomes the results were as follows: 6 affixes PPPSS (no open affix): 6 5 affixes PPPSS (no open prefix): 14 5 affixes PPSSS (no open suffix): 12 4 affixes PPSS (open prefix and open suffix): 26 4 affixes PPPS (no open prefix): 21 4 affixes PSSS (no open suffix): 17 Based on this small sample size, my working hypothesis about how the number of affixes is determined is that a random number between one and 16 is rolled. Then: 1-11 = 4 affixes 12-15 = 5 affixes 16 = 6 affixes With 96 cases, the above hypothesis would yield: 11/16 * 96 = 66 expected 4 affix cases versus 64 observed 4/16 * 96 = 24 expected 5 affix cases versus 26 observed 1/16 * 96 = 6 expected 6 affix cases versus 6 observed The hypothesis fits the data well. Given the low number of trials of course the hypothesis could be wrong. =========== As for the distribution of affixes in the case of 4-affix results, the observed distribution loosely fits the coin-flip hypothesis I made in an earlier post. ============ So, I'll go with the above in writing my chaos spam simulator. Empirically I'll gather more data too to help boost confidence in the hypotheses or to replace them with models that better fit observed data. ============= Side note - 200 chaos spent now on my chest (didn't track the first 100) and no chest upgrade yet, LOL. Last edited by hankinsohl on Jan 28, 2017, 9:12:33 AM
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" Many thanks for you help Radagastt. Your the best. I have swaped some of the gear for higher hp. now i have 4.7 hp with 20k damaged. 1 last thing which maps you would recommend for lvling fast as i have lost 58% of xp again lol | |
" Any linear or open-area T10-T13 map. So, Underground River, Shaped Strand, Shaped Mud Geyser, Plateau, Shaped Atoll, High Gardens, Waterways, etc. @Hank. Interesting stuff. Looking forward to more. Jul 27, 2011 - Sept 30, 2018. Last edited by Serleth on Jan 28, 2017, 1:00:13 PM
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" Thanks. I'm splitting my time between the Chaos Spam simulator and finishing off 40/40. Both are really interesting. And there' a confluence of sorts - although my HoWA toon is likely capable of clearing all content as-is, I'd like to upgrade the toon. But it's getting worse and worse for upgrades - I haven't gotten an upgrade in maybe 2-3 weeks - 2 weeks ago upgrades were for sale but a bit pricey. Now... if they're for sale at all, it's 10ex for a marginal/slight upgrade and more like 15ex for something with more resists/ES but not much more. A chest upgrade would cost 20ex+ unlinked. At these ridiculous prices, it's almost surely better to chaos spam - but my program will provide definitive guidance. Last edited by hankinsohl on Jan 28, 2017, 1:37:03 PM
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" My 2 cents... 4.7K life is a bit low. For endgame, I aim for 6K-ish - probably a bit heavier than Serleth aims for... but... I just hate dying. My recommendations if you want to level is to first decide if you're willing to die a bit but magic find while leveling - or if you simply want to level and don't want to die. In the first case, stick with magic find gear. In the second case, temporarily dump magic find gear for life/resists. ============ Not knowing which option you prefer, my 2 cents are: 1) Get more life. Strongly consider replacing your Carcass Jack with something else - resist plus high evasion rare. Carcass Jack is the finishing touch to the build - some AOE for clearing when you can sacrifice life and resists for the increased AOE. At 4.9K life you are not, IMO, in position to sacrifice life for AOE. 2) Run safe linear maps - Serleth suggested a few - but I hate the Underground River boss - he does some crazy stuff which has killed me in the past. If you read some of the discussion in this post about speed mapping and shaping your Atlas - you may want to consider doing this depending on how far you want to level. ============= Anyhow... for leveling... get more life, and replace Carcass Jack with something more defensive. ============= Final thoughts - I looked at your gear and saw that you had only 1 hallowed of seething life flask - really you ought to have 2 (and I run with 3). Spamming your seething flask will bail you out of tons of deaths - if you have only 1 of them you're handicapping yourself. Last edited by hankinsohl on Jan 28, 2017, 1:35:05 PM
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" What you do for that boss is just drop the Wither totem, engage. He'll disappear pretty quick. Use the adds to max out frenzy charges. There's a signal before he drops back down. Blink immediately. CoH. Kite a bit. Dead boss is dead. ***** Yeah, re: HoWA gearing, I got a couple relatively cheap upgrades (nothing special)
Spoiler
2ex and 3ex respectively. Anything after that was already going to cost me 8ex+ when I was looking into it. I said to myself, "Fuck that." Then the Overwatch Lunar New Year event started this week and I've been playing that instead ^_^ Jul 27, 2011 - Sept 30, 2018.
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" The crazy stuff that's happened to me in Underground River is: 1) Adds explode long after the boss is killed. I think I was looting after the boss died and a ton of adds exploded - don't remember if it killed me or not. 2) Boss re-spawns/drops directly on top of you. I may have been stunned and killed by this - don't remember. 3) Probably some other crap I've forgotten. Underground River went from a go-to leveling map for me last league to something I put aside and refused to run if I wanted to level due to the problems listed above (I got a couple of crap deaths out of nowhere). ============= Anyhow, I'm add explosion paranoid for that encounter - it's a nice linear layout - but I don't trust the game mechanics for that boss at all. ============== Oh... And nice ring. 3ex is a steal for that - you could probably list it for 8ex and sell it now, LOL. =============== Awhile back I changed my status message - due to my playing HoWA to - "I am become Death, Destroyer of Exalts" - true 2 weeks or so ago - and even truer now. Last edited by hankinsohl on Jan 28, 2017, 1:56:53 PM
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I still run Underground River regularly, however, I'll often skip the boss. Same with Excavation - just not worth the risk if I'm trying to level.
Current league IGN: Teldra_Anc_LAD
Feel free to message me in game if I'm on. |
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" I don't recall ever having been exploded post-fight. Weird. But yeah, RE:2, that's why I said: " =) Jul 27, 2011 - Sept 30, 2018.
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Hall of Grandmasters
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Cleared it fairly easily on my HoWA toon - no Mull, thank goodness. There was a wander with high range and dps which killed me several times which was the hardest opponent I faced. Probably could have rushed her and killed her. But I cheesed some of the encounters with this: That plus means that you're firing off single, very long range projectiles. Generally 4 or 5 hits kill off the even the tankiest exiles and range provides a ton of safety. |
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