[outdated] Caustic Arrow Solo Map MFer (20/300+)
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Speculation about the worth of fuses in Prophecy and the impact on magic find - skip if not interested
Spoiler
Fuses in Prophecy took a big valuation hit at the start of the league. The player base overestimated the availability of the 6-link Fated Connections Prophecy. Consequently, a lot of players thought that fuses would be far less valuable since an alternative 6-link mechanism would be available. Once the rarity of the Fated Connections Prophecy became apparent - there's only 2 available in Softcore Prophecy at the moment (similar in Hardcore Prophecy)- fuse prices started to climb because those wanting to 6-link their items found out that the only reasonable way to 6-link was to buy fuses. At the same time though, and completely surprising to me, it seems that The Jeweler's Touch Prophecy is rather common. So common in fact that it's far cheaper to purchase The Jeweler's Touch to 5-link than it is to purchase fuses. So what does this mean for he price of fuses in Prophecy? Fuses will be less valuable in Prophecy than in past leagues for 2 reasons. 1) Some of the player base will cling to the expectation that the Fated Connections Prophecy is common enough to cause a dramatic decrease in the cost of fuses. I don't think that this is true at all based on poe.trade availability and price of this prophecy. 2) The supply of fuses will increase somewhat - perhaps quite a bit - due to the affordability of The Jeweler's Touch Prophecy; instead of spending fuses, players will purchase The Jeweler's Touch to 5-link - fuses not spent on 5-linking will increase the supply of fuses for other purposes. This will tend to drive the price of fuses down. Bottom line - Magic Find takes a hit in the Prophecy league because alts/jewelers/fuses are worth a bit less. Moreover a portion of the player base seems to think that fuses are worth a lot less, further suppressing fuse prices. I still think that Magic Find in Prophecy is worthwhile though. But I think you'll probably make 10 to 20% less this league than in past leagues - give or take the ever present randomness/luck in finding items/currency - because you won't be able to sell orbs for as much profit as in the past. Last edited by hankinsohl#1231 on Jun 13, 2016, 2:26:05 PM
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" Touche! |
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" I'd like to point out the disparity isn't quite as large as you're making it out to be.
Spoiler
Usually by this point in the league chaos:ex ratios have already exceeded 75, possibly even 80:1.
For the past three days, the ratio has sat fairly even at 60:1, and only just today has chaos spiked a bit to 64:1. The reason for this is partly for the reason you mentioned fuses eventually calmed down, but not to the degree that we've seen before: Yes, Fated Connections is rare as hell, but Jeweler's Touch is now a well-known alternative for 5Ling your items. Granted, it does not 6S your item, it's 5S5L, but still, for 30c (roughly 75 fuses), you're able to 5L your item. As such, in a weird twist where you would figure more people would be investing in chaos rather than hoarding it, you're seeing a lot more expenditure for the Jeweler's Touch, not only for the 5L but for the challenge as well. You would think this supply/demand relationship would actually drive the cost of purchasing chaos up, but the more consistent flow of chaos seems to have resulted in something of a struck balance. We'll have to see, like I said, whether or not this holds as people such as myself who are rushing to 36+ start to reach their goal, but at the moment anyway we have this: 2.2 Prices One-Weekish in Chaos: 75:1ex Fuses: 130:1ex (there was a massive spike before it settled down to 110-115 later on). 2.3 Prices One-Weekish in Chaos: 64:1ex Fuses: 155ish:1ex Notice: That 15 or so chaos difference in 2.2 = 30 fuses. In other words, when you combine the net cost of chaos/fuse : 2 ex at a fuse equivalent in the ratios per league you get: 2.2: ((75 * 2) + 130 = 150 + 130 = 280 fuse 2.3: (64 * 2.5) + 155 = 315 So yeah, we're still behind in effectiveness a little bit, but your premise lies entirely around the fuse:ex ratio rather than accounting for the fact that chaos:ex is not what it was in 2.2 either. Thereby, I think your estimate of 10-20% less currency/hr is a bit high. That 35 fuse difference can be easily made in an hour. 10% might be accurate, but 20% is definitely overshooting it. Again, this might change depending on where fuse/chaos finally settles down as the economy is still sorting its worth out. Jul 27, 2011 - Sept 30, 2018. Last edited by Serleth#4392 on Jun 13, 2016, 2:58:19 PM
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" Thanks. And an actual you deserve credit thanks at that. After starting to be more involved with this thread, I realized and started to follow more of the affix level for the ID/UNID recipe compared to just the recipe level. So this was in my UNID recipe tab after a mapping session... Took a little while to remember this was both the base type I want to be identifying, and it was in the appropriate ilvl for the good resistance tiers. So a happy ID scroll, and gratitude for no longer just lurking. |
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We'll see :-)
Spoiler
Agreed with everything you posted but... Eventually Chaos:Exalted will hit 80:1 - I don't know the timing of this exactly... but it weems to me that this ratio takes 2-3 weeks to set in (I could be wrong). At any rate, enough players will want a 6-link to drive the chaos:exalt ratio up... up... up... IMO. And although I don't think that fuses will stay at 3:1, I do think they will never, ever hit 3:2 or 4:3 as in past leagues. So I expect to pay about 170 or more fuses per exalt within 2 weeks or so. But we'll see. I was able to purchase 110 fuses per exalt at this time in past leagues. Now, I can purchase about 160 fuses per exalt in a league that's two weeks old. I expect the price of exalts to climb and the price of fuses to fall. In the end, I expect to pay 180 fuses for an exalt... maybe more. Which is way, way, way off the price of fuses in past leagues. That said, Perandus wasn't great for Magic Find either. In that league, Cadiro made it possible for non-MF builds to obtain uniques much cheaper than in past leagues relative to pure magic find. Coins, for non-magic find builds dropped just as frequently as for magic find build - bar the possible slight discrepancy towards IIR - and hence, the competitive advantage of MF over non-MF was diminshed. Compare it to this league. The competitive advantage of farming lots and lots of rares, vendoring them, and then selling the orbs for chaos/exalts takes a big hit in Prophecy - due to the decreased value of fuses. So, while neither Perandus nor Prophecy is ideal for MF, I think that MF will take a slightly larger hit in Prophecy than it did in Perandus because - I think that, other things being equal, you tend to make more currency from selling orbs than you make from selling uniques. But this... is speculation. One last point - the thing that hurts magic find isn't the ratio of chaos:exalt - I don't think that this will change much in this league, but whether or not it does doesn't seem to matter. What hurts magic find is the reduced value of fuses as reflected in the ratio of fuses:chaos. Reduced fuse value = reduced alt/jeweler/fuse value which means - other things being equal - that MF will take a bit of a hit this league. I estimate 10% but maybe that's a bit pessimistic - perhaps 3-8% is more realistic. If we were able to somehow acquire exalts other than orbs -> chaos -> exalts then I'd agree that the lower chaos:exalt ratio (which I don't think is sustainable) would offset the higher orbs -> chaos ratio. But, other than finding uniques/high value rares/exalts, we can't farm exalts. And the frequency of finding uniques/high value rares/exalts is unchanged (well, finding high value uniques is less common but that will be offset by high unique prices). Which is to say, the only thing that's changed is that we're now paying more orbs to get chaos... which hurts magic find. And I don't think that this will change much in the long run due to points 1 and 2 in the previous post (namely 1) exaggerated devaluation of fuses due to unwarranted expectancy of the frequency of Fated Connection Drops and; 2) higher availability of fuses, which will only increase as the league wears on, due to the fact that savvy players won't spend fuses to 5-link but will instead just purchase the 5-link prophecy which will drive the availability of fuses up (not sure how much but for sure, I think this will be very noticeable - it was very rare to get a 6-link in leagues past but very common to get a 5-link for the average player). Time will tell. Last edited by hankinsohl#1231 on Jun 13, 2016, 4:29:53 PM
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" =D Glad to help out man! "
Spoiler
But the inverse is always true.
As more people realize Fated Connections is a trap at its current value, the price of fuses will come down. Not as much as they have in previous leagues, undoubtedly, but the way it ALWAYS works is that fuses spike hard, then settle down, while chaos goes on a steady climb. To that point, you're right, it likely will eventually hit 80c:1ex, but in the same breath you can expect fuses to drop from 155 to about 125-135 in that time frame. The reason is that sure, while 5Ling is now ridiculously easy with Jeweler's Touch, that also means that smart players are going to be BANKING their fuses to use for 6L attempts, rather than blowing 200 on a 5L then calling it a day. As a result, the demand for fuses is going to spike HARD once more people finish their builds utilizing Jeweler's Touch for the easy 5L, and then they push for the min-max. Which, addresses the latter paragraphs of your reply as well. More and more players every league are tasting what it's like to reach end-game, and really start to push their builds to the limit. I call attention to the fact that T15 twinned kills in Perandus were 15c, minimum. You can now buy them for 5c. That's a strong indicator that the amount of people capable of doing twinned T15 is on the rise. You can use this to make the following corollary: If more people are doing Twinned T15s, more people thereby are progressing further than they have before in all aspects of the game. Translation: more players also wanting to 6L their gear. Like you say, all speculation, but that's my theory. Another 1-2 weeks and we'll know for sure where we're at in terms of MF effectiveness, at least for this league. And if we can use Perandus/Prophecy as something of an indicator of what's to come for future leagues from GGG, i.e., mechanics that have a direct impact on the league economy, this might be something to keep an eye on as a whole. Jul 27, 2011 - Sept 30, 2018. Last edited by Serleth#4392 on Jun 13, 2016, 4:46:19 PM
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I know in the FAQ I say that MF isn't about dropping good uniques, but can't complain with a Shavs and now this:
Jul 27, 2011 - Sept 30, 2018. Last edited by Serleth#4392 on Jun 13, 2016, 10:41:16 PM
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Wow nice! You have had some great drops...
Have you attempted Pale Council by any chance? |
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Yep, easy with CA.
Jul 27, 2011 - Sept 30, 2018.
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" How did you go in terms of safety? Guessing with max chaos resist it and effect moving around it would be cake? |
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