Is the Recombinator bugged or have I been more insanely unlucky

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AIDA_TriEdge#4390 wrote:

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Direfell#7544 wrote:

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AIDA_TriEdge#4390 wrote:

It's not you. The rates definitely aren't what they are shown to be. I failed quite a few things to recomb in a row that raised my eyebrow but the biggest giveaway was 5 fails in a row to recomb a 42ish percent chance.

The odds of failing 5 attempts each with a 42% chance to succeed is about 6%, which is unlucky but not improbable.

i understand it's not improbable but it is highly unlikely. And if it was just this one instance i'd be inclined to let it slide as being very "lucky". But this piled on the other recombinator experiences let's me safely assume the shown rates are bs. And and this moment i doubt anything could change my mind.

How about stats and logic? Say 100k people playing, if everyone tries a set of 5 recombs with only a 6% chance of failing all of them, that's still 6 THOUSAND people who will experience that. So if 5,999 other people having the same (or worse, technically) experience as you (including all the low probability Andy's here on this thread)...and that won't convince you that bad luck can...just happen, I don't think you should be discussing things you refuse to understand.

As an example, in PoE1, 6 linking an armor piece was about 1200 fusings on average, 1k or so if you qualitied first (give or take). I have both hit a 6L in a single fusing (0.1% chance), and spent over 8000 fusings without a hit. The probability of that is about 0.0334%. So, you see, I've hit odds 60x and 180x worse than yours. By myself. It's a matter of luck, repetition of a process, and expanding data beyond a single outlier. Sorry you were the outlier.

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Redthorne82#3177 wrote:

How about stats and logic? Say 100k people playing, if everyone tries a set of 5 recombs with only a 6% chance of failing all of them, that's still 6 THOUSAND people who will experience that. So if 5,999 other people having the same (or worse, technically) experience as you (including all the low probability Andy's here on this thread)...and that won't convince you that bad luck can...just happen, I don't think you should be discussing things you refuse to understand.

Or how about instead of picking one sentence out of the post with your "i know better" attitude you read the whole thing again? As i stated, if that was my only one experience, i'd be inclined to let it slide as bad luck. But that was simply one of the more notable examples that stuck with me. And the fact that my cumulative experiences are often hitting highly unlikely odds of bad luck lead me to assume stuff. So your PEO 1 experience hardly does anything for me. As I said, my mind's made up on this. And probably the only thing that could change it would be reliably hitting 1/2 chance.

Furthermore, anyone can discuss anything they please. Person shared his opinion, i shared mine on the same subject. Now if i was trying to prove something or debate him, then i'd understand your "go educate yourself first" stance.