One Month Flashback Event (Hardcore)
" Oh, oops guess I quoted the wrong post ;) Fixed. |
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totes awsum
Last edited by Trentemoller#3637 on May 5, 2015, 11:48:28 AM
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YES!! This is great! Finally a league which turns out to be really fun and challenging.
I just don't understand the late timing, was hoping for a start like today.. to fill this void between the boring permanent leagues and the beta. Forcing players to buy beta supporter pack is not a good way to earn their support. Check the current non-beta player base and you'll know I'm right. Offline players don't buy anything. An earlier start would be better. Last edited by Foxmulder89#3851 on May 5, 2015, 12:09:28 PM
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3/200 chance of getting beta each day if you are in the top 1k.
As long as my quick math is right. If you are in the top 1k in all of the 30 days, you have a 45% chance to get a beta key. Nemesis ign = TransmisssionOrb
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" Well your math is a bit off if I can remember my high school math. Probabilities are a bit funny it you think of it in the following way it might be easier. Think of the probability of not getting a beta key if you are in the top 1000. Since there are 15 keys then there is a 985/1000 chance of not getting a key or 98.5%. We then need to iterate this over the course of 30 days (provided you are in the top 1000 of eligible accounts every day). So you get something like 0.985^30 or about 63.5% chance of not getting a key, or roughly 36.5% chance of getting a key. |
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" Not quite. You still have a 1.5% chance, drawn 30 times. You can't just add the 30 1.5% chances together. That's not how statistics work. |
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" Yeah I knew my 3/200 for the day was right cause I just took .015 and made it a fraction. But was unsure how to calculate the chance if you had the same chance for 30 consecutive days what the chance would be. Nemesis ign = TransmisssionOrb
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You have a 36.5% chance of getting in at some point, assuming that you remain in the top 1000 at all times :)
1 - (0.985^30) |
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" To explain to those who might not understand why: There's a 98.5% chance you don't get in the first day, thus there's a 98.5% chance you're still not in at the beginning of the second day and a 98.5% chance you don't get in the second day. Thus, there's a (.985)*(.985) = .970225 = 97.0225% chance you're not in on the second day. So 1 - .970255 = 2.9775% chance you did get in. Repeat this logic for 30 days, and it's the above formula. |
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" Same here! Invasion ftw. I will probably end up playing the race alone and ONLY the days with all the mods, trying to beat the game. Looks fun. PS: this should have been solo and no trade again and perfect. IGN: Gonorreitor Last edited by Valmar#3550 on May 5, 2015, 2:33:34 PM
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