Level 28 PvP Armor / Evasion / Damage Balance Issues (Including Maths)

Level 28 pvp has long been criticized for balance issues, but these criticisms have failed to deeply analyze or offer solutions for these issues. In this post I will list, analyze, and pose solutions for the major flaws of level 28 pvp. I have double checked all my math, and am ready to post my surprising (and disappointing) results.

Problem #1
Evasion
Evasion is extremely underpowered in level 28 PVP. The reason for this is the exponential decay of evasion's effectiveness built into the to-hit formula. Chance to hit is calculated as follows: Accuracy / (Accuracy + (Evasion / 4)^0.8)
The biggest problem here is the fractional exponent, which I will explain later.

Here's a breakdown of the maximum possible evasion attainable at level 28 (or close to it).
Level 28 base evasion: 134 (53+3/lvl)
Ranger tree: ~100% bonus evasion note:used as an example since Rangers have the highest evasion nodes for a level 28 character
200 dex: 40% bonus evasion note: this is a rough estimate with gear bonuses to dex
Gear:
Amulet: 10%
Full Leather: 568
Deerskin gloves: 263
Deerskin boots: 268
Leather Hood: 320
Ring: 60
Ring: 60
Crest of Perandus 20%: 64
note: these totals are the absolute maximums for level 28 evasion gear. They are calculated assuming the listed base items with three perfect evasion prefixes: Acrobat's (+60 local evasion), Spectre's (64% local evasion), and Butterfly's (32% local evasion / 11% hit recovery). If the given character actually had all items with these mods, they wouldn't have possibility of the Rotund prefix (+69 life), and would be unplayably squishy.

Total:
4342 Evasion
6079 Evasion with 100% Flask Of Reflexes

Chance to evade common accuracy ratings for level 28 PvP builds:
vs 700 Accuracy:
4342 Evasion: 27.7% Chance to evade
6079 Evasion: 33.4% Chance to evade

What about if they stack a little bit of accuracy? Let's say 1100, which is easily achieved:
vs 1100 Accuracy:
4342 Evasion: 19.6% Chance to evade
6079 Evasion: 24.1% Chance to evade

Okay... What if they stacked accuracy, getting a perfect "Of the Sniper" +165 accuracy suffix on all possible items (rings, helm, gloves) for a total of +660 accuracy? That'd be around 1600 accuracy (And that's on the low end, since accuracy nodes are % based, with additional accuracy support gem also being a very viable option)
vs 1600 Accuracy:
4342 Evasion: 14.3% Chance to evade
6079 Evasion: 17.9% Chance to evade

Okay... now what's the problem with all this?
Well, first of all, it is easy to stack up accuracy. The fact that "Of the Sniper" is a suffix makes it a viable option on level 28 gear. Prefixes come at a premium in low level dueling. These powerful prefixes are essential for a viable build: +69 life, 30% weapon elemental damage, +7-12 physical damage, +3-33 lightning damage, and more. Suffixes are less essential, and include elemental resistances, +27 str/dex/int, a little attack speed, % elemental damage, and a few others. "Of the Sniper" has a very high payoff for a suffix, and is therefore highly desirable. In addition, weapons can have multiple mods with +accuracy, with the potential to roll over +200 accuracy. On top of all of this, Marauders and Templars have easy access to Resolute Technique.

Level 28 PvP characters are unlikely to have even close to the above listed maximum evasion ratings. They simply cannot for such a low survivability payoff. 20% dodge isn't going to save you when you can only take one hit. In addition, it doesn't protect you against spells, traps, or Resolute Technique. +Life and +Damage are simply much better options. This is part of the overall problem of 28 PvP... The only viable builds are glass cannons and tanks.

So what do you suggest to improve this mechanic?
I understand that for late game balancing, evasion may need the exponential decay in the formula. However, this handicaps it at early levels, especially in a PvP context. Fixing this would be simple. Revamp the formula for chance to hit, perhaps leaving it as-is for PvM and writing a separate formula for PvP. Look at the theoretical maximums for evasion at level 28 for both evasion and accuracy and adjust the formula to accommodate a more playable dodge chance for evasion-geared builds. I think a reasonable dodge chance for maximum accuracy vs maximum evasion should be around 70%, given the fact that resolute technique would be a hard counter to said evasion-geared builds. That would at least make evasion a viable build for 28 PvP (And maybe high level PvP also)




Problem #2
Armor
Armor is underpowered in LLD PvP. My main character is a Facebreaker Duelist and deals 1207 average physical damage (732-1683) PER HIT. This isn't even the maximum possible at level 28, as I've tested and proven with other characters. Let's see how this damage measures up against the theoretical maximums for armor at level 28:

Tree: 40% A generous estimate from VIABLE Marauder / Duelist / Templar builds at level 28
Gear:
Full Plate: 568
Plated Greaves: 274
Bronze Gauntlets: 274
Close Helmet: 374
Belt: 60
Amulet: 10%
note: these totals are the absolute maximums for level 28 evasion gear. They are calculated assuming the listed base items with three perfect armor prefixes: Ribbed (+60 local evasion), Lobstered (64% local evasion), and Armadillo's (32% local evasion / 11% hit recovery). If the given character actually had all items with these mods, they wouldn't have possibility of the Rotund prefix (+69 life), and would be unplayably squishy.

Total:
A: 2325 Armor without Molten shell
B: 2769 Armor with Molten shell
C: 11375 Armor with 100% Granite flask of Iron Skin & no Molten Shell
D: 12115 Armor with 100% Granite flask of Iron Skin & Molten Shell

So let's see the damage! Damage reduction is calculated with the following formula: Armor / (Armor + (12*Damage))
With 1207 damage, the damage reduction is as follows:
A: 13%
B: 16%
C: 43%
D: 45%

So? What's wrong with these numbers?
Well, for low level PVP, these numbers mean that it is pointless to specialize in armor. Even for a build that goes straight armor, it is impossible to come even close to the 95% maximum damage reduction at level 28. In fact, without granite flasks, it is highly irrational to expect more than 15% damage reduction based on items and spells alone. Even with more reasonable numbers, say 1500 armor and 700 damage, the damage reduction comes out to 15.1%. This results in builds that specialize in physical damage and +life being unstoppable. When the maximum reasonable life at level 28 is around 1500, a 1200 damage hit would deal 1044 damage with 13% damage reduction. Do we want battles to be 2-shots every time?

And what do you suggest as a solution to this?
Same as evasion. Make a separate formula for PvP where the theoretical maximum possible damage reduction without granite flasks would be more like 50%. With granite flasks, a fair maximum reduction would be more around 70% in my opinion. Now is a good time to segue into my final topic.

Problem #3
Damage
Melee damage is too high. From my experience, melee duels last less than 3 seconds unless one party disengages and heals up with flasks. 2 or 3 shots kill. Spell damage seems to be relatively balanced, but only due to the numerous kiting techniques by casters (Temp chains, Bear trap, Frost wall, Cold snap). The only exception to this that I've seen so far is from dual Redbeak Bear trap, which can deal 1200+ physical damage. I feel that the damage in level 28 PvP needs to be adjusted.

What do you suggest, wise one?
I hate to refer to Diablo II, but some wisdom can be gleaned by their strategy for balancing PvP damage. A set % damage mitigation was applied to all PvP damage (something like 60% IIRC), and that worked out pretty well. Some spells could 2 or 3-shot, but those were slow, and had tradeoffs (Blessed Hammer couldn't target, and moved in a circle. Meteor was slow and basically never hit, etc). Melee damage was lower in low level duels, though 2 and 3 shot battles were seen from glass cannons. However, there were tradeoffs for such builds. The way level 28 PvP is right now in Path of Exile, it is possible to build massive damage with no good counter. Evasion sucks. Armor sucks. Spells are underpowered and counterable (dream fragments / wanderlust / warding flasks / poison arrow for dual redbeak).

In my opinion, damage should be balanced in relation to defensive builds. Options for damage and defense need to be expanded. Damage options can be addressed by buffing the damage bonuses from items or simply adjusting PvP-only damage for spells / melee attacks. Perhaps apply a global PvP damage modification like +20% spell damage, -30% melee damage. Damage mitigation options need a huge buff. Evasion and Armor could be totally revamped to reflect my suggestions above. Elemental and spell damage would also need to be controlled if those suggestions were implemented though. I haven't put an incredible amount of thought into the solution. The problems are there, though, and now they're out in the open.

I hope this post was enlightening to someone, and hope it helps in future LLD PvP balancing.

alot of time and effort in your post, I see. I totally agree with the global adjustment of pvp damage, would help alot since caster builds are a bit weaker. I imagine if they dont adjust the damage they will just add some low lvl unique caster item that reduces enemy resistance. It will make the builds cookie cutter but will be a good fix for awhile. I dont know if its technically casting being weak of if its because its easier to stack res and reduce the damage more effectively. 75% and adding flasks on top of that cuts damage down alot especially in comparison to armor not even coming close to that effectiveness without granite flasks or complete tank builds.

shields seem like the only way to make such excessive damage counts negate able resulting in matches which can be prolonged past 2 hits lol.

great post

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