Orb of Transmutation and Augmentation in Early game.

Hi Guyz!

There was a change introduced with the gradiation of currency (normal, greater, perfect) this season.
When I was leveling my character on SSF HC I was buying all non-magic Rattling sceptres from the shop and upgrading them with Orb Of Transmutation OR Augmentation. All to increase my chances of getting +minions level on it. Unfortunately, utill level 60 I did not have this suffix in the shop at ALL. What is more, all of the Orbs I used also did not grant me +minions skill level. To say this in numbers, I think it took like 4000 or 5000 attempts (Yes, I was also merging 3 sceptres to get a new one too). Ofc I could just be unlucky - very unlucky. Still, my questions is:

Are "Normal" Orbs of Transfutation Or Augmentation able to give you a tier 5 suffix? (which in this case will be +1 minions skill).

I know it was possible before, but after these changes I was so unlucky OR it is not possible to roll higher tier with these early Orbs...

Says here the +1 mod is available from level 2, that it is a suffix, and classified as tier 4.

https://www.craftofexile.com/?game=poe2&b=17&bi=210&ob=both&v=d&a=x&l=a&lg=17&bp=y&as=1&hb=0&bld={}&im={}&ggt=|&ccp={}&gvc={%22limit%22:88}

I would of thought it should be pretty easy to get, as you are suggesting it might of been for you in the past.

Having a lower level item might help. On a level 60 item it is a 1.7% chance as a suffix, while on a level 2 item, it is a 7% chance. Though level 60 should also be able to hit up to tier 2.

That does sound like pretty strange RNG. How confident are you that you had that many attempts? Looking at some binomial calculations, it would be pretty unlikely to not get one in 1000 attempts. So 1/4000 is pretty extreme. As with probability, it is not impossible, but depends how the numbers are being generated.

I do not know about the currency changes, but if you got it eventually, seems like it must be possible with the base currency. Sometimes you will run into something like this, it is hard to say whether it is an anomaly or an event that is not completely approximating random, without knowing the limitations of the coding number generation.

Could also be, as often is, that we are not understanding the mechanic in some way. From POE1 experience I would say that is very unusual, and assume POE2 is similar, but I don't know and I don't know how it is programmed beyond helpful tool like craft of exile, which am assuming to be correct.

I've done the simulation at craftofexile.com with 4k loops, and it gave the suffix there.

Let's do some math, tho.

Let's say you have 5 rattling sceptres per level (visiting the shop each level and dropping).

5 sceptres x 60 level = 300 sceptres.

With merging, we have + 1/3rd of it (100), which gives 400 sceptres.

Each sceptre has at least 2 mods (always use cheap Orbs), but some can have more, e.g. golden one. Let's do an approximation of 3 mods per sceptre.

That gives 400 x 3 = 1200 attempts.

You can be right. Maybe I did less than 4k, but 1200 rolls. With that, I could be unlucky tho.

Also, I've done the simulation on Craft of Exile, and there you can see that in 4k attempts, you will get +1 minion level skills suffix.

I thought that maybe because of how they changed "Normal Orbs" to work, they coded it to block also higher-tier affixes. Still, there can be a chance that I just got unlucky.