How much is 1% on the GGG Servers?

I asked because if I ran something like Maprunners and Mapdevice says: 1% chance that a Runner is killed, one is killed at least every 24 Maps .... which in european math is waaaay more than 1% chance.

I made this experience in other situations as well, but with the Map Runners it is so damn obvious.

Any explanation someone?

"

StorgutBorsit wrote:

I asked because if I ran something like Maprunners and Mapdevice says: 1% chance that a Runner is killed, one is killed at least every 24 Maps .... which in european math is waaaay more than 1% chance.

I made this experience in other situations as well, but with the Map Runners it is so damn obvious.

Any explanation someone?

First you explain us what this "european math" is you're talking about. Hoho, this is gonna be interesting.

1% means 1%
More maps means a higher likelihood of hitting the 1%
Just alone with 24 maps as your named sample you have about a 21% chance to hit the 1% at least once or 63% in 100 maps.

"

Ulsarek wrote:

"

StorgutBorsit wrote:

I asked because if I ran something like Maprunners and Mapdevice says: 1% chance that a Runner is killed, one is killed at least every 24 Maps .... which in european math is waaaay more than 1% chance.

I made this experience in other situations as well, but with the Map Runners it is so damn obvious.

Any explanation someone?

First you explain us what this "european math" is you're talking about. Hoho, this is gonna be interesting.

Its the math used in europe :P

"

Pashid wrote:

1% means 1%
The more maps you have the higher the chance is to encounter the 1%.
Just alone with 24 maps as your named sample you have about a 47% chance to hit your 1% at least once.

Wait what? To me it means that out of 100 Maps one will die. It seems that I am too dumb to see the logic behind such numbers?

Unfortunately that's not how it works. Read up on probability, it is quite interesting and applies to a lot of things you're interacting with in this game.

There it is, european math doesn't lie.

tbh I suspect they had a bug early on making it 1% death rate per runner so 6% if you ran 6 runners at 1%. However that seems to have been fixed. I rarely ever lost any the last couple of weeks. Also the complaints in here seemed to die down somewhat. Then again it could be variance. Sample size is hard to get by unless lots of people collaborate and noone lies about the numbers xD

It also seems to always be the lowest level one dying so I never run full T10 crew unless I need them to run the corrupted T17s I cannot run myself.

I was gonna say: its probably 1% PER mapper. So if you have 6 mappers....then its actually going to be as high as 6% chance per map to lose someone. But I cannot verify that so please don't quote me.

For probability: when you repeat something with the same odds, you add up the chances to get a rough estimate of TOTAL probability across multiple trials.

Ex: 1 / 100 chance per map, you run 24 maps.

1 / 100 + 1 / 100 + 1/100....24 times. This yields an actual rate of about 24% chance.

***Note: this is NOT the actual equation. It is a simplification for the sake of understanding.

It's not actually getting "More likely" (the odds don't change per map), but the chance of HITTING the 1/100 becomes more likely as more trials occur.

This makes sense when you think about it: if there is a 1 / 100 chance for death to happen, then you can say that within 100 maps, death will happen with 100% likelihood.

***Inb4 people point it out: this is a SIMPLIFICATION. I am aware the equation and actual outcome data is different, but its mildly unhelpful when trying to just understand the concept itself.




This is the single most mind blowing thing about probability when it clicks!