Random awards of races

I am currently wondering if I am extremely unlucky or there is just some mystery going on with my account. Most likely first option but still this is way to unlucky even for me :-D .

I have taken part around 60 races by this time and I looked around that average reward pool for each race seems to be around 65 prices per race (ofc burst races have lower pool and more time consuming have around 80 prices).

Average player base on races seem to be around 500-800 players so lets average it up to 650 players.

Lets do calculations to get chance of winning "anything" at all. 65/650*100=10%. So I have 10% chance to win every race. Since I had taken part of 60 races my random prices won should have been around 6. But it is exactly 1. I wouldn't even had written this Post if I would have received 3 prices by now (considering my 24/7 back luck in games overall) but 1 out of 6 seems to be lowest of them all.
Chance this to happen is 1/6*100=16.7% .. like rly. I know how randomness works but still it seems to be my all time low.

And yes the one random award I won was at the beginning of the season when there was a lot more players collecting points. Back then the 10% chance to win was actually even lower than now.

Random rewards are weighted by points gained in the race. That will alter your math a bit, though it still seems like you've been unlucky.

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Random rewards are weighted by points gained in the race. That will alter your math a bit, though it still seems like you've been unlucky.

In that case. At the start of the season I had average of 7 point in one hour races and usually got place around 400-500
But I have progressed in skill level a lot from that time and I manage to get even get into top 20 of my class (most of the time) and few times even into top inside top10 to grab few extra points from there.

But yeah, I think me being unlucky is part of me and I considered it to be case here as-well.

People can also win multiple raffle prices, as far as I know. I've barely won any myself.

That's the catch here. I seriously dumped a lot of my free time into this season this time since I wanted this belt badly due to fact that I have a build idea for it (even though I know its fairly cheap one BUT its custom art!). I think if I would have dome more almost sleepless night i would have reached even to 500 but what can you do ... sleep&health > gaming

Before this race I have taken part of one season before where I took it casually and got 3rd price or so. But even then I remember I won at least 2 extra iLvL 100 ring and few times a 1st random price as-well (cant remember what it was).
But seriously now when I have 346 points and I am at 345th place in overall .. there should be more rewards for the effort.

Ofc if I remember correctly then this is the first season that rewards points for dead characters? I suspect that random prices might go to dead characters also? If so I would suggest to make random prices exclusive to characters that survived. Basically for the effort that you managed to survive till the end. I think that would inspire people to play more carefully at the end segment of race and they wouldn't just Leeroy Jenkins into monster packs for last gasp of EXP to gain better position and then die.

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Heroicer wrote:

Ofc if I remember correctly then this is the first season that rewards points for dead characters? I suspect that random prices might go to dead characters also?

Yes to the latter. It's not the first season where dead characters receive points, but i do think it has an impact on random rewards. In the sense that, say 8 points per race back in the day would get you a larger amount of random rewards than 8 points per, today.

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Heroicer wrote:

If so I would suggest to make random prices exclusive to characters that survived. Basically for the effort that you managed to survive till the end. I think that would inspire people to play more carefully at the end segment of race and they wouldn't just Leeroy Jenkins into monster packs for last gasp of EXP to gain better position and then die.

Random rewards are to incentivize newer racers. I.e. the ones that are more likely to die. Also, to learn and get better you need to be aggressive, which means a ton of dying until you get really good. If you play safe you improve much more slowly. Therefore i think the random rewards system works fine as it is.

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unsane wrote:

Random rewards are to incentivize newer racers. I.e. the ones that are more likely to die. Also, to learn and get better you need to be aggressive, which means a ton of dying until you get really good. If you play safe you improve much more slowly. Therefore i think the random rewards system works fine as it is.

True .. Making my statement I really did not considered the new players and on that perspective I find that what you are said I, myself find that reward system is fair.

And just for a not .. now I actually do believe that my account is bugged in some way. this is not just logical that I have yet not won any random price other than the one at the start of the season. I do not know how but its seems so unlikely to not win any price for the last 50 races or so.

Going to write letter to support just to be sure that my luck is all time low or there is some sort of glitch going on with my account.

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Heroicer wrote:

Worst RNG confirmed :-D

Just to be clear, you do understand it's weighted right? If 50 players get 15 points (grossly estimating the total player point pool from top to bottom), and you get 8 points, you have a 8/758 chance for getting each random reward.

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unsane wrote:

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Heroicer wrote:

Worst RNG confirmed :-D

Just to be clear, you do understand it's weighted right? If 50 players get 15 points (grossly estimating the total player point pool from top to bottom), and you get 8 points, you have a 8/758 chance for getting each random reward.

I do understand what you are saying and I did take this into account even the last time you wrote it. The thing is that I consider my point being average or slightly above average.

Lets say there is 50 players and average earned is 8 points. There is always more people under the average than above, but it doesn't matter on the RNG if you as a player have also a average points earned.

Lets bring example 1/50 chance is the same chance to win as 8/(8*50)=1/50. Yes, Computer has theoretically more chances to stay locked on more targets but the % stays the same if you earned average points. If you earned more points you have more chance than people that earned less. For example more experienced people get chance of 1/25 and players who earned less point get for example 1/75. But Computer does not recognize (at least it shouldn't .. otherwise it wouldn't be random) if that you earned more or less. Its still game of %.

It's just bad luck. I had about 50 more points than you on the season. I just checked and I got 13 randoms this season, which I thought was below average. I also got three double randoms (I've gotten triples and maybe even quads in past seasons). Only one double set was a race where I got class points. Again, this "seemed" like it was below average for a race season.

The thing about rng that I see a lot on game forums is people look at the odds of something happening to them. Then they think there is something wrong when they go 5X, or 10X, or 100X as long as the odds predict.

But odds don't work that way. You have to consider large numbers of people. The odds of rng being evenly distributed are extremely low. The odds of some people getting very lucky and some getting very unlucky are extremely high. The odds are so high of that happening that you can pretty much assume it will happen. Then the people who got very unlucky get on the forum and think something must be wrong with the rng. They show the odds are a million to one of it happening to them, but they forget that the odds are extremely high of it happening to someone. They just happened to be one of the unlucky people.

Btw, is there a particular prize you were wanting?